Friday, November 18, 2022

Case of the Quadrennial Voter (Wisconsin 2022 edition)


Voter turnout is always lower in midterm elections, averaging about 40% nationally compared to 60% in presidential elections.  Wisconsin is not immune from this trend.


Democrats tend to experience a much bigger midterm drop-off than Republicans.    

In 2010, two years after Barack Obama's big win, the drop-off in Wisconsin Democratic voters was 40.1%, which opened the door to the Tea Party here and elsewhere.  That's what happens when you sit out elections.    The number of GOP votes dropped just 10.6%

A similar pattern occurred in the 2014 midterms:  30.7% drop for Democrats, 11.8% for Republicans.

In 2018, the Democrats actually had a smaller drop-off than the Republicans.  That's because too many Democrats sat out the election with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket, helping to put Donald Trump in the White house.  That's what happens when you sit out elections.

Now in 2022 we find that the Case of the Quadrennial Voters infected more Republicans than Democrats.  All that Trumpy talk about a stolen election seemed to deflate GOP voters.



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