Tuesday, January 29, 2019

The rise and fall of Donald Trump in Wisconsin

Party ID not included

Latest polling data point to major re-election challenges for Trump in Wisconsin.  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 1/28/2019)
High disapproval. Right now, Trump has a precarious path to victory in Wisconsin, a state he won by less than one point in 2016. His approval rating is 44 percent — higher than it is in most national polls, but lower than it was here last fall and weighted down by the unpopular government shutdown that just ended. 
More importantly, polls throughout his presidency have consistently shown that close to half the potential electorate is dug in against him. In the Marquette survey taken Jan. 16-20, 52 percent disapprove of his job performance, 46 percent “strongly” disapprove and 49 percent say they will “definitely vote for someone else” in the next presidential election. That doesn’t mean Trump is doomed to lose. But it means his window for victory is a very tight one.

According to Morning Consult, Trump approval/disapproval ratings have shifted -12 percentage points since his inauguration:
  • January 2017:  47% approval/41% disapproval
  • December 2018:  42% approval/54% disapproval

Other 1/16-20/2019 Marquette poll posts:
OK, folks, raise your hand if you lied on the first response.  (1/24/2019)
Marquette Law School poll: On the issues and those who legislate them.  (1/24/2019)
Except for impeachment, Trump underwater in Marquette poll questions.  (1/24/2019)
The demographics of Wisconsin supporters and detractors of Donald Trump's border wall.  (1/25/2019)
Scott Fitzgerald and Robin Vos: Knowing enough about them depends on where you live.  (1/26/2019)

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