Monday, June 22, 2015

Republicans' 2016 Presidential primary preferences look like a bunch of scribbles when graphed



The behinders in 6/14-6/18 in NBC/WSJ poll: 
  • 1% - Trump, Kasich, Graham
  • 0% - Santorum, Jindal, Pataki
 % of Republican primary voters who would not support a particular candidate (same poll):
  • 66% - Donald Trump
  • 55% - Chris Christie
  • 49% - Lindsey Graham
  • 45% - Rand Paul
  • 44% - George Pataki
 
All to be taken with a big grain of salt.

What's the Matter with Polling? (The New York Times, 6/20/2015)
Election polling is in near crisis, and we pollsters know. Two trends are driving the increasing unreliability of election and other polling in the United States: the growth of cellphones and the decline in people willing to answer surveys. Coupled, they have made high-quality research much more expensive to do, so there is less of it. This has opened the door for less scientifically based, less well-tested techniques. To top it off, a perennial election polling problem, how to identify “likely voters,” has become even thornier.

Related posts:
Scott Walker taking a dive in Florida Republican presidential primary polling.  (6/20/2015)
Candidates struggle to reach double-digit percentage levels in latest New Hampshire Republican presidential primary poll.  (6/15/2015)
Has anyone else noticed that Scott Walker peaked 2 months ago in New Hampshire? (6/14/2015)
Scott Walker is already yesterday's news in North Carolina.  (6/4/2015)
Same as it ever was, pretty much, in latest Fox News poll.  (6/3/2015)
The latest CNN/ORC Republican presidential primary poll likes the Florida boys.  (6/2/2015) 
5-way tie in latest Quinnipiac Republican presidential primary poll.  (5/28/2015)
Republican presidential candidates find little elbow room in latest Fox News poll.  (5/16/2015)
Latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) numbers keep Republican candidates in a jumble.  (5/14/2015)
Digging through the latest Arizona Republican presidential poll, we learn that Scott Walker is the perferred candidate of older, 'very conservative' voters.  (5/11/2015)
The leading Republican candidates for President have already peaked in New Hampshire.  (5/10/2015)
The Florida Boys leave Scott Walker in "show" position in latest Republican presidential horse race poll.  (5/5/2015)
Two more Iowa Republican presidential polls to add to the line graph.  (4/28/2015)
Jeb Bush experiences some serious slippage in New Hampshire.  (4/17/2015)
Home-state voters show waning enthusiasm for a Lindsey Graham presidential campaign.  (4/16/2015)
Big spikes for Scott Walker, Donald Trump in most recent New Hampshire poll.  (4/13/2015)
Tracking the Florida Republican presidential primary polls, January-March 2015.  (4/4/2015)
Ohio Republican presidential primary poll: Ohio Governor Kasich leads the pack.  (4/3/2015)
Tracking the national Republican presidential primary polls.  (4/3/2015)
Republican presidential primary polls: The current top 5 preferences.  (4/2/2015)
New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary voters are having trouble making up their minds.  (3/31/2015)
Another day, another New Hampshire Presidential primary poll.  (3/28/2015)
Bush, Rubio not exactly wowing the home-state voters.  (3/27/2014)
Scott Walker tied for 2nd with 'Dunno' in latest CNN/ORC poll. (3/19/2015)
Bush-Walker-Dunno in a 3-way tie for Connecticut Presidential primary preferences.  (3/15/2015)
Don't know/no answer/somebody else/won't vote leads latest Quinnipiac Republican Presidential primary poll.  (3/6/2015)
Bush-Walker-Unsure are 1-2-3 in latest Florida Republican Presidential primary poll.  (3/3/2015)
Bush-Walker-Unsure are 1-2-3 in latest South Carolina Republican Presidential primary poll.  (3/3/2015)
It's Walker, Bush, Unsure in 1st Nevada Presidential primary poll of the year.  (3/2/2015)
Quinnipiac poll: Scott Walker is the Tea Party favorite among likely caucus-goers in Iowa.  (2/26/2015)
Texas Poll: Scott Walker takes it to a couple of Texans on their home turf.  (2/25/2015)
Someone else/no one, Ben Carson have best 1-2 punch in Public Policy poll.  (2/24/2015)
'Undecided' leads, Scott Walker 2nd, in year's first California Republican Presidential primary poll.  (2/20/2015)
On the merry-go-round: Mike Huckabee takes the lead in the latest Republican Presidential preference poll.  (2/18/2015)
Give it up: "Favorite Son" Lindsey Graham ekes out an anemic 17% in South Carolina poll.  (2/17/2015)
New Hampshire: Jeb Bush holds slim lead among crowded GOP pack in NBC News/Marist poll.  (2/17/2015)
Mike Huckabee retakes Iowa lead, Walker falls to 3rd in NBC News/Marist poll.  (2/17/2015)

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