Wednesday, December 13, 2017

UPDATE. Dear Roy Moore, God is not on your side

12/11/2017 update, "On the eve of the Alabama U.S. Senate special election, the polls have gone haywire ", starts here.

Source:  Real Clear

12/6/2017 update, "Less than a week before special election, Roy Moore leads Doug Jones in the polls by 2.3 percentage points", starts here.

According to Real Clear Politics poll averages.  Well within the margin of error.

Emerson, on the other hand, has the race tightening up considerably since its September 21-23 poll.

And then there's this recent development, which none of the recent polls have factored in.

Retired Marine colonel to launch Senate write-in campaign in Alabama.  (Washington Post, 11/27/2017)
Lee Busby, 60, of Tuscaloosa, Ala., said he thinks that the allegations of sexual impropriety against Republican nominee Roy Moore have created an opportunity for a centrist candidate to win more than a third of the state’s votes in the Dec. 12 special election. 
“I think you can flip this thing. If this were a military operation, the left flank and the right flank are heavily guarded,” Busby said. “I think that gives you an opportunity to run straight up the middle.”

12/1/2017 update, "Roy Moore leads Doug Jones in 2 most recent polls, BUT...", starts here.

In the 2 most recent Emerson polls, Jones cuts Moore's lead to 7 from 10 percentage points.

And JMC Analytics seems a rubber ball.....bouncy-bouncy.

11/21/2017 update, "Doug Jones gains 9 percentage points on Roy Moore in latest WBRC-TV/Strategy Research poll", starts here.

EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows Roy Moore and Doug Jones in statistical tie.  (WBRC, 11/21/2017)
Would like to see crosstabs on the 21%.  When asked “what do you think about the allegations made against Roy Moore,” 45% believe all or some of the allegations; 34% do not believe the allegations; and 21% believe some or all of the allegations, but say it has not changed their vote.

11/17/2017 update, "On average, Doug Jones ekes out a slim lead in Alabama U.S. Senate special election polls", starts here.

Full results of November 14-15 Gravis Marketing poll found here.

Original 11/16/2017 post, "Doug Jones closes the gap in Alabama U.S. Senate special election polls", starts here.

EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows Roy Moore and Doug Jones in statistical tie A new Alabama Senate poll shows Roy Moore 8 points behind Doug Jones.  (Vox, 11/16/2017)
Jones’s lead is outside the margin of error of 3.5 percent, revealing a substantial bump a week after sex allegations against Moore, beginning with a Washington Post report that included a woman who alleged Moore sexually assaulted her when she was 14, dominated the news. One of first polls after the Post story broke showed Moore and Jones even; now, the Democrat has pulled ahead a little less than a month away from the December 12 special election.

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