Saturday, November 2, 2024

Platte County, Missouri: Keep an eye out on this suburban Kansas City area on Election Day 2024

 
In 1984, Ronald Reason won Delaware County by 25.2 percentage points.
 
In 2020, Donald Trump won the county by just 3 percentage points.
 
Will the county flip from Red to Blue in 2024?  It's very possible.

3rd party votes:  31.1% in 1992, 11.4% in 1996. 7.3% in 2016
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 16% of the vote in 1968)

Trump received 2,984 more votes than he did in 2016, a 11.5% increase.   Biden received 7,122 more votes than Clinton did in 2016, an increase of 36%.

Trump's share of the vote decreased by 1.8 percentage points.  Biden increased Clinton's share of the vote by 7.1 percentage points. 

The population of Platte County has increased 140% since 1980.

Wikipedia 

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:
  • 44.3% - Platte County
  • 34.7% - Missouri
  • 34.3% - U.S.
% of population 65 and older:
  • 16.6% - Platte County
  • 17.5% - Missouri
  • 17.7% - U.S.
% of population living in poverty:
  •   8.3% - Platte County
  • 11.2% - Missouri
  • 11.1% - U.S.



Other candidates to flip Blue in 2024:
Douglas County, Colorado.  (11/2/2024)
Hamilton County, Indiana.  (11/2/2024)
Carver County, Minnesota.  (11/2/2024)
Delaware County, Ohio.  (11/2/2024)
Collin County, Texas.  (11/2/2024)
Denton County, Texas.  (11/2/2024)
Ozaukee County, Wisconsin.  (11/2/2024)
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GET ME REWRITE: How can anyone report on right-leaning polls without mentioning Trafalgar lead pollster Robert Cahaly, godfather of the GOP wet dream fantasy poll?


Word searches for 'Trafalgar' and 'Cahaly' result in 0 hits.

 Headline:  New York Times, 10/31/2024
Fantasy polls: Slate


Live by the polls, die by the polls
October 2024
Malpractice in journalism:  Taking Trafalgar lead pollster Robert Cahaly's GOP wet dream fantasy polls seriously. (10/16)
No need to panic, folks; it’s just Trafalgar lead pollster Robert Cahaly making up another batch of GOP wet dream fantasy polls. (10/5)
Been there, done that: Just like in 2022, Trafalgar lead pollster Robert Cahaly trolls the media with GOP wet dream fantasy polls (Wisconsin presidential edition)er  (10/4)
Been there, done that: Just like in 2022, Trafalgar lead pollster Robert Cahaly trolls the media with GOP wet dream fantasy polls (Michigan presidential edition)
Been there, done that: Just like in 2022, Trafalgar lead pollster Robert Cahaly trolls the media with GOP wet dream fantasy polls (Michigan US Senate edition)

September 2024
Dear Newsweek: Please place an election season embargo on Trafalgar polls.  They are nothing more than a GOP wet dream.  Just like 2022.  Best, Retiring Guy.  (9/1)
Dear Eric Mack:  Remember the so-called 2022 Red Wave?  Trafalgar polls are nothing but a GOP wet dream.  Best, Retiring Guy.  (9/1) 

June-August 2024
Trafalgar's Robert Cahaly:  Just what you'd expect from a "pollster" who promoted a nonexistent "Red Wave" in 2022
Dear Sean Hannity:  Trafalgar's Robert Cahaly deals in GOP wet-dream fantasies.  If he sez Trump is up 2 in Georgia, he's actually down 5.  Best, Retiring Guy.  (8/2/2024)

December 2023

November 2023

October 2023

February 2023
 
January 2023
RULE #1: Never take a Trafalgar poll at face valve (RNC chair election edition).  (1/27)
Day 61 of Robert C. Cahaly's self-imposed exile.  (1/7)
FiveThirtyEight reports Trafalgar poll with a straight face.  (1/6)

December 2022

November 2022
And then there were those Trafalgar fantasy polls.  (11/21)
Since Election Day, we have been listening to 'The Sounds of Silence" by Robert C. Cahaly.  (11/16)
Looking forward to Trafalgar's first fantasy poll of the 2024 GOP presidential campaign shit show.  (11/16)
Governor's race in Colorado.  (11/16)
Governor's race in New York.  (11/15)
Governor's rate in Michigan.  (11/11)
Governor's race in Minnesota.  (11/16)
Governor's race in Minnesota.  (11/16)
Governor's race in Pennsylvania.  (11/14)
Governor's race in Wisconsin.  (11/14)
Senate race in Arizona.  (11/15)
Senate race in Colorado.  (11/14)
Senate race in Nevada.  (11/14)
Senate race in New Hampshire.  (11/14)
Senate race in Pennsylvania.  (11/14)
Senate race in Vermont.  (11/11)
Senate race in Washington.  (11/11)


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In Michigan, it's the end of a short-lived era for far-right Ottawa Impact

 
Headline:  mlive, 11/1/2024
In the August primary election, many people were closely watching how the Ottawa County results would shake out. 
The primary served as a sort-of referrendum on the far-right Ottawa Impact commissioners who took over county government following the 2022 election. 
The interest in the Republican primary races was so high that it crashed the county’s election website.

Related posts:
October 2024
Dear Ottawa County voters:  Now is your chance to dump that incompetent clown Joe Moss.  Vote smart!  (10/21)

September 2024

August 2024
2024 primary election Ottawa County Commission:  Far-right Ottawa Impact incumbent Gretchen Crosby gets crush by moderate Republican.  (8/7)

July 2024
 
June 2024

May 2024

April 2024

March 2024.  

February 2024 
Chris Vander Sys challenges Ottawa Impact whackjob Gretchen Cosby for seat on Michigan's Ottawa County Board.  (2/21)

January 2024

2023

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Douglas County, Colorado: Keep an eye out on this suburban Denver area on Election Day 2024


In 1984, Ronald Reagan won Delaware County by almost 60 percentage points.

In 2020, Donald Trump won the county by just 7.2 percentage points.

Will the county flip from Red to Blue in 2024?  It's possible, but if not, it'll be close.
 
3rd party votes:  28.7% in 1992, 7% in 1996. 8.7% in 2016
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 10.9% of the vote in 1968)

Trump received 18,697 more votes than he did in 2016, a 18% increase.   Biden received 35,996 more votes than Clinton did in 2016, an increase of 52%.

Trump's share of the vote decreased by 2.3 percentage points.  Biden increased Clinton's share of the vote by 8.6 percentage points. 


The population of Douglas County has increased 1426% since 1980.


Colorado is a state with a much higher-than-average level of education.  Douglas County is even more so.

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:
  • 60.0% - Douglas County
  • 43.7% - Colorado
  • 34.3% - U.S.
% of population 65 and older:
  • 14.5% - Douglas County
  • 16.0% - Colorado
  • 17.7% - U.S.
% of population living in poverty:
  •   3.1% - Douglas County
  •   9.3% - Colorado
  • 10.5% - U.S.


Other candidates to flip Blue in 2024:
Hamilton County, Indiana.  (11/2/2024)
Carver County, Minnesota.  (11/2/2024)
Delaware County, Ohio.  (11/2/2024)
Collin County, Texas.  (11/2/2024)
Denton County, Texas.  (11/2/2024)
Ozaukee County, Wisconsin.  (11/2/2024)
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Denton County, Texas: Keep an eye out on this north Dallas/Fort Worth suburban area on Election Day 2024


In 1984, Ronald Reagan won Denton County by 51.7 percentage points.

In 2020, Donald Trump won the county by 8.1 percentage points.

Will the county flip from Red to Blue in 2024?  If not, it's likely to be very close.

Wikipedia 
3rd party votes:  34.5% in 1992, 9.1% in 1996. 5.7% in 2016
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 16.9% of the vote in 1968)

Trump received 51,877 more votes than he did in 2016, a 30% increase.   Biden received 77,805 more votes than Clinton did in 2016, an increase of 70%.

Trump's share of the vote decreased by 3.9 percentage points.  Biden increased Clinton's share of the vote by 8 percentage points. 


Denton County population has increased 600% since 1980.


Its population is also very diverse.

Source:  U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts

No MAGAland here.

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:
  • 47.9% - Denton County
  • 32.3% - Texas
  • 34.3% - U.S.
% of population 65 and older:
  • 12.0% - Denton County
  • 13.7% - Texas
  • 17.7% - U.S.
% of population living in poverty:
  •   7.8% - Denton County
  • 13.7% - Texas
  • 11.1% - U.S.




Other candidates to flip Blue in 2024:
Hamilton County, Indiana.  (11/2/2024)
Carver County, Minnesota.  (11/2/2024)
Collin County, Texas.  (11/2/2024)
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Carver County, Minnesota: Keep an eye on this southwest suburban area of Minneapolis on Election Day

  
In 1984, Ronald Reagan won Carver County by 27.6 percentage points.

In 2020, Donald Trump won the county by just 4.9 percentage points.

Will the county flip from Red to Blue in 2024?

3rd party votes:  30.3% in 1992, 15.0% in 1996. 9.2% in 2016
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 4.6% of the vote in 1968)

Trump received 4,953 more votes than he did in 2016, a 17% increase.   Biden received 9,266 more votes than Clinton did in 2016, an increase of 43%.

Trump's share of the vote decreased by 0.9 percentage points.  Biden increased Clinton's share of the vote by 7.8 percentage points. 


The county's population has more than tripled since 1980.






With a higher-than average education level, the county isd not fertile ground for MAGA.

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:
  • 49.8% - Carver County
  • 38.2% - Minnesota
  • 34.3% - U.S.
% of population 65 and older:
  • 15.2% - Carver County
  • 17,5% - Minnesota
  • 17.7% - U.S.
% of population living in poverty:
  •   4.5% - Carver County
  •   9.3% - Minnesota
  • 11.1% - U.S. 


Other candidates to flip Blue in 2024:
Hamilton County, Indiana.  (11/2/2024)

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Friday, November 1, 2024

Demented Donald Trump's absolutely pathetic appeal to New Mexico voters

 

Shared by Heather Cox RIchardson
Donald Trump's closing arguments
Meet deadbeat Donald Trump campaigning at private airport hangar in New Mexico.  (11/1/2024)
Clueless and demented Donald Trump:  This is what a serial rapist and crotch grabber says.  (11/1/2024)
Donald Trump conducts master class in violent political rhetoric in Arizona.  (11/1/2024)








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GET ME REWRITE: Divided town in a MAGA county in a divided state

 
Kewaunee County ranks 12th among Wisconsin's 72 counties in having the largest percentage of its presidential vote for Donald Trump in 2020, 12 years after voting for Barack Obama by 11 percentage points.  

It's home to a major-leaague all-star MAGA flip.
  
Source:  Wikipedia
3rd-party candidates received 20.6% of vote in 1992, 
14.4% of vote in 1996, 4.9% in 2016;
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 9.1% of the vote in 1968)


New York Times, 12/19/2022

Interesting.   Reporting from Kewaunee County without making even a glancing mention of CAFOs and contaminated groundwater.




Other Kewaune County posts:
2022
CAFOs in the news: Kinnard Farms yearns for the good old days of Scott Walker and Ms. Stepp.  (4/27)
Dear Jodi, You have every right to be worried. If Tony Evers loses, Kewaunee County is fucked. Best, Retiring Guy.  (3/26)

2019
Dear Wisconsin State Journal headline writer, Beleaguered farmers?  What about beleaguered residents with contaminated well water due to manure pits?  Best, Retiring Guy.  (9/17)





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Child pornography in the Name of the Lord (Texas edition)

 
Photo and headline:  NBC Miami, 10/24/2024
According to court documents, a member of the church contacted Abilene Police with concerns regarding one of their youth leaders. 
Documents state Charles Goff met with a fellow church member and admitted to struggling with pornography. 
Goff specifically said he struggled with videos of teen girls 14-15 years old. 
Detectives met with Goff and he admitted to soliciting nude pictures from teenage girls using various social media platforms.
"Blessed are the pure in heart, for they will see God."  (Matthew 5:8)

Related posts:
October 2024
Stephen Johnson.  (10/27/2024)
Josh Howerton.  (10/26/2024)
Craig Stone.  (10/26/2024)
Steven Lawson. (10/25).  
Scott Crenshaw.  (10/25)
Byron Copeland.  (10/25)
Josiah Anthony.  (10/25)
Ronald Goines.  (10/24)
Tony Cammarota.  (10/24)
Robert Morris.  (10/24)
Mike Buster.  (10/23)
Tony Evans.  (10/23)
Terren Dames.  (10/23)
James Randolph.  (10/23)
Matt Queen.  (10/18)
Roy Shoop.  (10/12)
Gabriel Mills.  (10/3)

September 2024
John Raymond.  (9/27)
Juan Barrios.  (9/23)
Demiro Johnson.  (9/22)
Glen Dean McCoy.  (9/22)
James Swanson.  (9/21)
William Dunfee.  (9/21)
Steven Lawson.  (9/20)
Rocky Goodwin.  (9/19)
William Johnson.  (9/17)
Tim Ballard.  (9/13)

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