Saturday, August 26, 2023

2024 presidential nomination polls: Insider Advantage outlier poll puts Nikki Haley at 11%

 
Poll resultsReal Clear Politics



August 2023

July 2023
When hubris is synonymous with humiliation (Talkin' about you, Francis Suarez).  (7/25)

June 2023
Polling at 5%, Mike Pence to announce presidential campaign in Des Moines.  (6/1)

May 2023
Among West Virginia GOP voters, if you're not Trump, you're nobody.  (5/30)
GOP continues to boogie its way to doomsday.  (5/2)

April 2023

March 2023

February 2023

December 2022

November 2022

GET ME REWRITE: GOP scrambling to 'find a response' to abortion

 
As quoted in 
New York Times, 8/24/2023

"Find a response"?
But if Ms. McDaniel welcomed the discussion Wednesday night, so, too, did some Democrats and abortion rights activists, who were eager to remind voters that most Republicans — including those on the debate stage — are far to the right of public opinion. [emphasis added]
“Someone tell her they’re also not going to win if they do talk about abortion,” a leading abortion rights group, Naral Pro-Choice America, responded on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Case in point:  Vivek Ramaswamy sez, "I think abortion is murder."

Much more below. 



US Senator Ron Johnson continues to embarrass Wisconsin with his clown show antics

 
Headline:  Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 8/25/2023
The Republican senator described the actions by the group of Wisconsin Republicans as "political activity." He made his comments a day after the former president was arrested in Fulton County, Georgia, on charges that he attempted to overturn 2020 election results in the state, the fourth criminal case he faces while campaigning for a second term in the White House. 
The group of Wisconsin Republicans who signed the fake elector paperwork are not facing criminal charges, but Democratic Gov. Tony Evers said earlier this month those participating in the fake elector scheme should be held accountable.

Related posts:
2023. 
Wisconsin Embarrassment:  "Our Dumb Senator" wears a tin-foil hat.  (5/1)
Long-running Wisconsin show of political incompetence, "Our Dumb Senator", renewed for another 6 years  (3/30)
"Our Dumb Senator", starring Ron Johnson, is Wisconsin's long-running farce.   Now its in 13th year!  (2/15)
Snookered again: Wisconsin elects insurrectionist Ron Johnson to a third term in the U.S. Senate.  (1/4)

2022
Unfortunately, too many Wisconsin voters thought Ron Johnson deserved a third term in the U.S. Senate.  (12/25)
Meet the GOP troglodytes of the United States Senate.  (12/16)
Dear Wisconsin voters, I'd like to report a certifiable election problem. This fraud is posing as our U.S. Senator and thinks he deserves a third term. Best, Retiring Guy.  (10/20)


GET ME REWRITE: Wisconsin Republicans go on offense to defend cheating in elections

 
HeadlineWisconsin Watch, 8/25/2023

The UW Applied Population Lab defines 'cracking' as 
drawing districts in such a way as to divide a concentration of specific types of voters across several districts such that they are a minority in each one, with practically no hope of achieving representation in any of the districts. This practice also helps make districts less competitive.
Th UW Applied Population Lab defines 'packing' as 
the practice of drawing particular districts in such a way as to ensure that another party's candidate wins that seat by a tremendous margin. Although the opposing party is all but guaranteed the seat, packing makes surrounding districts less competitive, and thus tips the balance of power in the legislative body overall toward the ruling party.


Meet the leaders of the packing and cracking brigade!


Wouldn't you rather have this diverse group in the majority?
 


How the GOP cheats to win:

See also:  Cheating to win elections: Wisconsin GOP attempts to defend the indefensible use of cracking and packing in drawing legislative districts (series)

Covid hospitalizations up in Texas, especially among those 70 and over

 
GraphNew York Times
Headline:  Dallas Morning News email news update
COVID-19 is once again rearing its ugly head, causing hospitalizations and cases to increase while the release of updated booster shots is still about a month away. 
North Texas hospitals reported 274 COVID hospitalizations Friday, a 16% jump from 237 patients on Monday, Aug. 21, according to Dallas-Fort Worth Hospital Council data.

Friday, August 25, 2023

Disappearing cities of the United States: Cleveland, Ohio (2022 census update)



Detroit's 2022 estimated population decreased 3% since the 2020 census.  Its population has dropped 60% since its 1950 peak of 914,808.  The city has as many residents now as it did in the 1890s.

Source:  Wikipedia

 Cleveland.com, 3/30/2023
CLEVELAND, Ohio - Cuyahoga County continues to be the top county in Ohio for population loss year over year, albeit at a slower rate than last year, according to new census estimates released Thursday. 
From mid-2021 to mid-2022, Cuyahoga County lost 11,767 people, more than the total number of people lost in Ohio overall. The year before, Cuyahoga County lost 14,715. Cuyahoga’s population now stands at 1,236,041.

Related post:
Disappearing U.S. city of the day: Cleveland, Ohio.  (1/3/2023)

Other 2022 updates:
Cairo, Illinois.  (6/15/2023)
Detroit, Michigan.  (8/25/2023)
Flint, Michigan.  (7/20/2023)
Gary, Indiana.  (7/19/2023)
Hamtramck, Michigan.  (6/15/2023)
St. Louis, Missouri.  (8/25/2023)
Scranton, Pennsylvania.  (7/19/2023)
Youngstown, Ohio.  (6/15/2023)

Disappearing cities of the United States: Detroit, Michigan (2022 census update)

 
Detroit in its heyday.

Postcard from Retiring Guy's collection

Detroit's 2022 estimated population decreased 3% since the 2020 census.  Its population has dropped 66% since its 1950 peak of 1,849,568.  The city has as many residents now as it did in the mid-1910s.

Source:  Wikipedia

 Michigan Advance, 5/23/2023
But Duggan insisted on Thursday that the census is undercounting residents and called the bureau “a complete clown show.” 
According to the mayor, the U.S. Postal Service reported an increase of 6,300 residential homes in Detroit since 2021. He also pointed to rising home prices and 25 new housing projects that are under construction “as the market struggles to keep up with the demand.”
Which doesn't necessarily translate into a net population gain

It's the same old song warbled by Detroit mayors for decades.


New York Times, 11/22/1990


The bottom line remains:  Detroit is lossing residents like few other US cities.


Related post:
Disappearing U.S. city of the day: Detroit, Michigan.  (2/1/2022)

Other 2022 updates:
Cairo, Illinois.  (6/15/2023)
Flint, Michigan.  (7/20/2023)
Gary, Indiana.  (7/19/2023)
Hamtramck, Michigan.  (6/15/2023)
St. Louis, Missouri.  (8/25/2023)
Scranton, Pennsylvania.  (7/19/2023)
Youngstown, Ohio.  (6/15/2023)

Disappearing cities of the United States: St. Louis, Missouri (2022 census update)


St. Louis's 2022 estimated population decreased 5% since the 2020 census.  Its population has dropped 67% since its 1950 peak of 856,796.  The city has as many residents now as it did in the 1860s.

Source:  Wikipedia

KDSK, 5/2/2023
Overall, the bureau said the region's population fell by 0.4%, or more than 11,000, from 2021 to 2022, to 2,801,319. The regional decline from 2020 to 2021 was 0.23%. And that followed a 2020 census that saw the metro's population growth rank it 47th out of the biggest 50 U.S. regions. 
St. Louis County's population declined 0.78% from 2021 to 2022, to 990,414, the bureau estimated, more than the 0.48% decline from 2020 to 2021. The city's decreased 2.38% from 2021 to 2022, to 286,578, worse than a 2.3% decline the previous year, it said. 
These are bigger (out-migration) numbers than people anticipated," Ness Sandoval, associate professor of sociology and demographer at Saint Louis University, said of the figures. "There are a historic number of people leaving the region. I don't think anybody (anticipated it being) that high."

Related post:
Disappearing U.S. city of the day: St. Louis, Missouri.  (1/2/2019)

Other 2022 updates:
Cairo, Illinois.  (6/15/2023)
Flint, Michigan.  (7/20/2023)
Gary, Indiana.  (7/19/2023)
Hamtramck, Michigan.  (6/15/2023)
Scranton, Pennsylvania.  (7/19/2023)
Youngstown, Ohio.  (6/15/2023)

GET ME REWRITE: With its virulently anti-abortion platform plank, Minnesota Republicans will continue to lose statewide elections

 
HeadlineMinneapolis Star Tribune, 8/26/2023
Election resultsPolitico

Republican Scott Jensen now says his campaign-trail promise to ban almost all abortions cost him the 2022 Minnesota governor's race and the issue could hurt future candidates if the party doesn't rethink its strategy. 
At the same time, his running mate, former Vikings player Matt Birk, is redoubling his efforts in the anti-abortion movement, telling activists to not "back down" in a recent op-ed and fundraising blast to raise money for a crisis pregnancy center.





Meet the 'deeply conservative' members of the Ottawa (Michigan) County Board

 
Headline:  Bridge Michigan, 8/24/2023
A political showdown in Michigan's Ottawa County has moved into the national spotlight, after the county’s deeply conservative political leaders instructed the public health officer to cut the county’s contribution to her office’s budget in half. 
Writing on the department’s Facebook page, embattled health officer Adeline Hambley said such cuts are “ridiculous” and warned they would “significantly impair, and likely eliminate” health services. 
Late Thursday, Hambley wrote in a follow-up post that the proposed cuts “will almost certainly close the health department within weeks of its implementation,” adding that county leaders are attempting “to achieve political victory over COVID-19 at the expense of Ottawa County citizens.”  
County leaders’ repeated attacks — stemming from the health office’s enforcement of vaccine and safety mandates during the pandemic — has led the National Association of County and City Health Officials and the Michigan Association of Local Public Health to enter the legal battle over Hambley’s future. The organizations filed an amicus brief on her behalf.

Other posts from Crackpotville USA:
Dear Jamestown Charter Township Michigan residents, A truly great library contains something in it to offend everyone. Best, Retiring Guy.  (7/25/2022)
Greetings from Trump's America:  Ottawa County, Michigan, which is not as Trumpy, or as red, as it used to be.  (7/22/2023)

Cheating to win elections: Wisconsin GOP attempts to defend the indefensible use of cracking and packing in drawing legislative districts (Cracking Appleton , part 3)

 
The district comprises northern quarter of Winnebago County and not a small chunk of southern Outagamie County. It includes all of the city of Neenah and a piece of the city of Appleton.  By stretching the western boundary of this district deeper into rural Winnebago County, the GOP has insured that the 55th cannot be flipped.

Nate Gustafson (R-Neenah) has represented the 55th district since January 2023.  He defeated his Democratic opponent by 9 percentage points.

Headline:  Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 8/11/2023
Map:  Wisconsin State Legislature (boxes added)

Somehow, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporter Tyler Katzenberger can write an article about legislative district without mentioning 'gerrymandering', 'packing', and 'cracking'.  

It's called journalistic malpractice.

The UW Applied Population Lab defines 'cracking' as 
drawing districts in such a way as to divide a concentration of specific types of voters across several districts such that they are a minority in each one, with practically no hope of achieving representation in any of the districts. This practice also helps make districts less competitive.
Th UW Applied Population Lab defines 'packing' as 
the practice of drawing particular districts in such a way as to ensure that another party's candidate wins that seat by a tremendous margin. Although the opposing party is all but guaranteed the seat, packing makes surrounding districts less competitive, and thus tips the balance of power in the legislative body overall toward the ruling party.


Meet the leaders of the packing and cracking brigade!


Wouldn't you rather have this diverse group in the majority?
 

Related reading:

Winnebago County became the 40th Wisconsin county board to pass a resolution in favor of a fair maps process that's independent, nonpartisan, and transparent. That makes 55% of all counties––representing 68% of Wisconsinites––that have called on the state to pass a bill to create an independent, nonpartisan redistricting process for drawing our election maps. Wisconsinites are overwhelmingly united in ending partisan gerrymandering that puts party over people and politicians over voters.

Other posts in the series:

See also:  Spotlight on Wisconsin gerrymandering

Wisconsin gerrymandering spotlight on Assembly District 86: Packing Wausau and cracking Marshfield

 
What's wrong with this picture?
 
Packing the City of Wausau (part 2), cracking the City of Marshfield.

MapsWikipedia (boxes added)

Marshfield close-up


The UW Applied Population Lab defines 'cracking' as 
drawing districts in such a way as to divide a concentration of specific types of voters across several districts such that they are a minority in each one, with practically no hope of achieving representation in any of the districts. This practice also helps make districts less competitive. [emphasis added]
The UW Applied Population Lab defines 'packing' as 
the practice of drawing particular districts in such a way as to ensure that another party's candidate wins that seat by a tremendous margin. Although the opposing party is all but guaranteed the seat, packing makes surrounding districts less competitive, and thus tips the balance of power in the legislative body overall toward the ruling party.

The other side of dismantling the Wausau area community of interest (inner orange box), courtesy of the Exact-O knives of the GOP gerrymanderers. (See 8/24/2023 post for the rest of the story.)

The majority of the gerrymandered 86th Assembly District is within a selective portion of Marathon County (purple box in above map), with a Wood County add-on that cracks the Marshfield area community of interest.  (See "State-based requirements".)

The ineffable John Spiros (R-Marshfield) has represented the district since January 2013.   He ran unopposed in November 2022.


Related reading:

The group chose Marshfield for the conference because of its central location but also because the city fell victim to partisan redistricting in 2013, said former state Assembly representative Amy Sue Vruwink during the press conference. 
Vruwink represented the 70th District from 2002 to 2015, according to Ballotpedia, which during most of her tenure included the city of Marshfield. The city is now split down the middle between the 68th and 69th assembly districts.

We have this white male menagerie to thank for the state's current maps..

Meet the defenders of fair elections.



Other posts in the series: