GET ME REWRITE: In a year when conservative pollsters tried to drive the election narrative, Politico sez "HOORAY " for polls

 

Top headline:  Politico, 12/30/2022

Other headline:  New York Times, 12/30/2022)

From the Times:

Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality. But they also conducted fewer polls than in the past. 

That paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives. 

The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media. It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast and “The Charlie Kirk Show” to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom. [emphasis added]

Related posts:

Rule #1: Never cite a Trafalgar poll to bolster your argument.  (12/24/2022)

Day 34 of Robert C. Cahaly's self-imposed exile.  (12/11/2022)

And then there were those Trafalgar fantasy polls.  (11/21/2022)

Since Election Day, we have been listening to 'The Sounds of Silence" by Robert C. Cahaly.  (11/16/2022)

Looking forward to Trafalgar's first fantasy poll of the 2024 GOP presidential campaign shit show.  (11/16/2022)

Governor's race in Arizona.  (11/16/2022)

Governor's race in Colorado.  (11/16/2022)

Governor's race in New York.  (11/15/2022)

Governor's rate in Michigan.  (11/11/2022)

Governor's race in Minnesota.  (11/16/2022)

Governor's race in Minnesota.  (11/16/2022)

Governor's race in Pennsylvania.  (11/14/2022)

Governor's race in Wisconsin.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Arizona.  (11/15/21022)

Senate race in Colorado.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Nevada.  (11/15/2022)

Senate race in New Hampshire.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Pennsylvania.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Vermont.  (11/11/2022)

Senate race in Washington.  (11/11/2022)

LOCK THEM UP: "Best friends" Clarence Thomas and Ginni Thomas

 

Top headline:  Boston Globe, 6/25/2022

Bottom headline:  Bloomberg Law, 12/30/2022

From the Globe:

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and his wife of 35 years, Virginia “Ginni” Thomas, refer to each other as “best friends,” their bond built on deep conservative beliefs and forged tighter by decades of fighting attacks they perceive as unfair that began with his turbulent 1991 confirmation. “ 

She was a gift from God that I had prayed for,” the justice said in a new book about him, “Created Equal: Clarence Thomas in his Own Words.” “She’s been as dear and close a human being as I could have ever imagined having in my life.”

Related posts:

LOCK HER UP! Ginni Thomas: traitor, insurrectionist, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas.  (10/3/2022)

LOCK HER UP: Insurrectionist Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas.  (9/30/2022)

Clarence and Ginni's freedoms takedown list.  (6/28/2022)

Yes, Gary, some 'amazing things' have happened under Bob Jordan's leadership after you handed over the reins at Southwest Airlines, but I don't think it's what you had in mind

Mentors say the darndest things. 

Sources:  Twitter (highlight added),  Business Insider

Related posts:

Southwest Airlines CEO Bob Jordan buckles up for a bumpy ride.  (12/30/2022)

CEO Bob Jordan fails to address Southwest Airlines numerous challenges.  (12/29/2022)

Christmas week USA movie box office, 2017 to 2022 (December 28)

December 28 box office down 9% compared to last year and down 50% compared to the 2017 peak, when "Star Wars:  Episode VIII" was the top-grossing movie.

Source:  Box Office Mojo

Deadline, 12/30/2022

The motion picture industry remains in a state of rehabilitation. 

Just look at the majors’ domestic box office alone. 

Back in 2019, four studios grossed over a billion apiece, with Disney-Fox reaping $4.28 billion alone. This year, only three studios grossed $1 billion or more.  

And while we do get down to the nitty gritty, they all should be graded on a curve. Audiences, especially adults, aren’t back on a consistent basis. The August-to-mid-October period was absent any tentpoles due to the pandemic’s logjam of titles in post-production. Realize that 2022 was suppose to get such big movies as Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse, Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1, The Flash and Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom, to name a few. All of those moved into 2023. If anything flopped, it was due to discerning audiences who chose between going to the cinema or streaming at home.

12/29/2022 update starts here

December 28 box office down 15% compared to last year and down 52% compared to the 2017 peak, when "Star Wars:  Episode IX" ruled.

Source:  Box Office Mojo

Variety, 12/29/2022

Movie theater owners believe that next summer will be stronger, with the release of sequels including “The Guardians of the Galaxy” and “The Fast and the Furious.” However, they don’t expect things will return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024. That’s a long time to wait for a business that has been hit hard by an extended shutdown and shifting tastes as viewers get more accustomed to watching on streaming services. It’s already resulting in closures and bankruptcies — Cineworld, the owner of Regal and the second biggest exhibitor in the world, filed for Chapter 11 protection in September and some industry observers think other chains might be forced to follow suit if things don’t improve.

 

12/28/2022 update starts here

December 27 box office down 5% compared to last year and down 43% compared to the 2017 peak, when "Star Wars:  Episode IX" was kickin' butt.

Source:  Box Office Mojo

Variety, 12/28/2022

In total, only three films released in 2022 managed to surpass the billion-dollar mark, a short list that includes “Top Gun: Maverick” (which took 31 days to clear the benchmark) and “Jurassic World Dominion” (which took more than four months to join the club). By comparison, nine movies released in 2019 surpassed $1 billion worldwide. “The Way of Water” is the fastest to hit the mark since 2021’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” which took 12 days. Only six movies in history have cleared $1 billion in their first two weeks of release.

Original 12/27/2022 post starts here

December 26 box office down 21% compared to last year anad down 41% compared to the 2017 peak, when "Star Wars:  Episode VIII" set the pace.

Source:  Box Office Mojo

Variety, 12/27/2022

But with the earnest return of movies comes those pesky but inevitable flops. And this year, there were some doozies. The failure of Disney’s “Lightyear” and “Strange World” cast some serious doubt on the future of family movies. Meanwhile, the well-reviewed “Bros” and “She Said” highlight the challenges facing mid-budget fare. 

Overall, the domestic box office has collected $7.4 billion so far in 2022, according to Comscore. Those ticket sales remain down 33% from the $10.6 billion generated in 2019, the last normal period at the box office. That’s partially because studios released fewer films over the course of the year, but the decline can’t only be ascribed to COVID-related production delays. It could also indicate a change in consumer habits. 

Before the year comes to a close, Variety took a look at how the major studios fared at the global box office over the past 12 months.

Related posts:

Fourth weekend in December.  (12/26/2022)

Third weekend in December.  (12/19/2022)

Second weekend in December.  (12/12/2022)

First weekend in December.  (12/5/2022)

Thranksgiving 2022 daily top 10 movie grosses (Wednesday-Sunday)  (11/28/2022)

Thanksgiving weekend daily movie grosses.  (11/28/2022)

Pre-Thanksgiving box office weekend down 47% from 2017 peak.  (11/21/2022)
Going down: October 2022 box office drops 44% compared to 2018. (11/3/2022)
Weekend box office reports for October 2020.  (series)

GET ME REWRITE: Rural Wisconsin counties no match for Democratic shift in once-red suburbs (Kewaunee County edition)

 

Kewaunee County ranks 12th among Wisconsin's 72 counties in having the largest percentage of its presidential vote for Donald Trump in 2010, 12 years after voting for Barack Obama by 11 percentage points.

  

Source:  Wikipedia

3rd-party candidates received 20.6% of vote in 1992, 14.4% of vote in 1996, 4.9% in 2016;

(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 9.1% of the vote in 1968)

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 12/19/2022

In a word, no.

If the Democratic collapse in rural western and northern Wisconsin was the most dramatic feature of the state’s 2016 election map, then the unchecked Republican decline in suburban southern Wisconsin is the most arresting feature of the 2022 map. It is all the more striking when you consider that Republicans had reason to believe they might steady their suburban ship this year, with Donald Trump not on the ballot, with a Democrat in the White House who has poor job ratings, with crime and inflation playing prominent roles in the campaign. But that didn’t happen.

Democrats haven't won a majority of the vote in Kewaunee County since the 2008 presidential election, 

Sources:  Wikipedia (presidential, gubernatorial)

The population of Kewaunee County has increased 27% since 1920.  Wisconsin's population has increased 124% and Dane County;s has increased 560% during the same period.

Source:  Wikipedia

Kewaunee is one of Wisconsin's whitest counties.

Source:  U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts

Related posts:

Clark County.  (12/20/2022)

Florence County.  (12/27/2022)

Juneau County.  (12/29/2022)

Langlade County.  (12/23/2022)

Lincoln County.  (12/25/2022)

Marinette County.  (12/27/3022)

Oconto County.  (12/22/2022)

Polk County.  (12/30/2022)

Rusk County.  (12/21/2022)

Taylor County.  (12/26/2022)

Waushara County.  (12/24/2022)

Greetings from Trump's America: Crawford County, Ohio, where residents voted overwhelmingly not to go along with wind farm development

 

Source:  Wikipedia

3rd-party candidates received 28.2% of vote in 1992, 16.8% of vote in 1996, 5.7% in 2016;

(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 11.3% of the vote in 1968)

Trump received 1,825 more votes than he did in 2016, a 16% increase, in a county where the 2020 population of 50,364 is 17% less than the 1970 peak of 42,025. 

Biden received 291 more votes than Clinton did in 2016, an increase of 6%.

Trump's share of the vote increased by 4.1 percentage points.  Biden decreased Clinton's share of the vote by 0.2 percentage points.

New York Times, 12/30/2022)

On Election Day last month, Apex saw its development efforts for a wind farm in Ohio die when voters in Crawford County overwhelmingly voted to uphold a ban on such projects.

Source:  U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:

• 15.7% - Crawford County
• 29.7% - Ohio
• 33.7% - U.S.

% of population 65 and older:

• 21.3% - Crawford County
• 17.8% - Ohio
• 16.8% - U.S.

% of population living in poverty:

• 13.5% - Crawford County
• 13.4% - Ohio
• 11.6% - U.S. 

\

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Keya Paha.  (4/14/2019)
Knox County.  (3/28/2019)
Nemaha County.  (3/27/2019)
Richardson County.  (3/27/2019)
Sioux County.  (12/22/2018)

New Jersey
Sussex County.   (3/15/2021 update)
7th Congressional District.  (4/14/2017)

New York
Broome County.  (2/14/2019)
Cayuga County.  (2/13/2019)
Cortland County.  (2/14/2019)
Essex County.  (11/29/2017 update)
Franklin County. (2/9/2019)
Fulton County.  (2/10/2019)
Herkimer County.  (2/10/2019)

Lewis County.  (9/13/2021)
Orange County.  (2/15/2019)
Oswego County.  (2/11/2019)
Otsego County.  (2/12/2019)
Putnam County.  (2/27/2018)
Renssalaer County.  (2/13/2019)
St. Lawrrence County.  (2/8/2019)
Seneca County.  (2/14/2019)
Sullivan County.  (2/15/2019)
Warren County.  (2/11/2019)
Washington County.  (2/11/2019)
19th Congressional District.  (3/26/2017)

North Carolina
Cherokee County.  (5/18/2022)
Hyde County.  (11/10/2019)
Robeson County.  (12/1/2017)
Union County.  (3/9/2017)

North Dakota
Burleigh County.  (12/6/2019)

Ramsey County.  (12/5/2021_
Sargent County.  (10/22/2017)

Ohio
Adams County.  (12/9/2017)
Ashtabula County.  (2/18/2019)

Auglaize County.  (10/5/2021)
Belmont County.  (7/17/2018)

Brown County.  (9/16/2021)

Carroll County.  (12/6/2021)
Columbiana County,  (12/9/2020 update)
Coshocton County. (9/25/2021 update))

Crawford County.  (9/21/2021)

Darke County.  (9/23/2021)
Defiance County.  (3/21/2017)
Erie County.  (3/5/2019)

Fayette County.  (9/21/2021)
Gallia County.  (2/23/2019)
Guernsey County.  (9/2/2021)

Hardin County.  (9/16/2021)

Harrison County. (5/28/2021)
Highland County.   (9/1/2021)

Hocking County.  (9/21/2021)

Holmes County.  (12/8/2021)
Huron County.  (6/19/2017)
Jackson County.  (6/6/2017)
Jefferson County.  (2/20/2019)
Lawrence County.  (9/2/2021 update)
Marion County.  (7/14/2018)
Meigs County.  (2/22/2019)
Mercer County.  (12/8/2019)

Monroe County.  (9/3/2021)
Morgan County.  (9/3/2021)

Morrow County.  (9/23/2021)
Muskingum County.  (12/8/2020 update)
Ottawa County. (3/5/2019)

Paulding County.  (9/5/2021)

Pike County.  (9/1/2021)

Perry County.  (9/3/2021)
Portage County.  (3/7/2019)

Richland County.  (9/5/2021)

Ross County.  (9/6/2021)
Sandusky County.  (3/5/2019)

Scioto County.  (9/1/2021)
Shelby County.  (10/5/2021)
Trumbull County.  (4/3/2017)
Tuscarawas County. (1/25/2019)
Van Wert County.  (4/12/2017)

Vinton County.  (9/1/2021)
Wayne County.  (5/6/2018)

Williams County.  (3/21/2017)
Wood County.  (3/6/2019)
Wyandot County.  (5/4/2018)

Oklahoma

Bryan County.  (5/5/2017)
Nowata County.  (5/5/2018)
Osage County/Fairfax.  (5/12/2019)

Oregon

Baker County.  (5/29/2021)

Douglas County.  (5/17/2017)

Pennsylvania

Beaver County.  (2/8/2019)
Blair County/Altoona.  (4/28/2019)
Bradford County.  (2/18/2020)
Cambria County/Johnstown.  (6/3/2017)

Clearfield County.  (3/6/2022)

Dauphin County. (4/22/2017)
Elk County.  (3/24/2019)

Erie County.  (10/11/2018 update)
Fayette County.  (7/25/2018)

Fulton County.  (12/10/2021)

Greene County.  (5/3/2017)

Huntingdon County.  (3/9/2021)
Lawrence County.  (2/5/2019)

UPDATE. Luzerne County.  (1/14/2017)
Lycoming County.  (1/28/2020)
McKean County.  (2/17/2020)
Mercer County.  (2/9/2019)

Northampton County.  (7/20/2017)
Old Forge (Lackawanna County).  3/18/2019)
Pike County.  (2/23/2020)
Potter County.  (2/17/2020)
Susquehanna County.  (2/18/2020)
Tioga County.  (2/17/2020)
Warren County.  (6/30/2019)
Wayne County.  (2/18/2020)

Williamsport.  (1/24/2017)

8th Congressional District.  (4/18/2017)

South Carolina

Spartanburg County.  (6/5/2017)

South Dakota

Charles Mix County.  (11/11/2019)
Lawrence County,.  (4/27/2017)

Tennessee
Campbell County.  (12/10/2017)
Carter County.  (2/24/2020)

Cooke County.  (5/16/2021)
Lake County.  (12/22/2018)
Marion County.  (4/1/2017)
Maury County.  (10/31/2017)
Roane County.  (5/1/2018)
Union County.  (5/30/2017)

Texas
Gaines County.  (4/26/2017)

Llano County.  (4/18/2022)
Shackelford County.  (2/26/2018)

Virginia
Bland County.  (2/16/2020)
Buchanan County.  (12/13/2019)
Carroll County.  (2/28/2020)
Dickenson County.  (2/15/2020)
Floyd County.  (2/27/2020)

Franklin County.  (3/8/2021)
Frederick County.  (2/15/2020)
Giles County.  (2/26/2020)
Grayson County.  (2/27/2020)
Lee County.  (2/15/2020)

Llano County.  (4/18/2022)
Patrick County.  (2/29/2020)
Pulaski County.  (2/26/2020)
Russell County.  (2/15/2020)
Scott County.  (2/16/2020)
Smyth County.  (2/16/2020)
Tazewell County.  (2/16/2020)
Washington County.  (7/6/2021 update)
Wise County.  (11/9/2020)

Washington
Columbia County.  (11/7/2021)

Grays Harbor County.  (8/20/2017)

West Virginia
Berkeley County.  (3/25/2018)
Boone County.  (9/11/2021 update)
Brooke County.  (3/17/2019)
Cabell County.  (8/1/2021 update)

Calhoun County.  (9/10/2021)

Clay County.  (5/21/2021)
Doddridge County.  (9/11/2021 update)
Fayette County.  (1/24/2017)
Greenbrief County.  (9/12/2021 update)
Hancock County. (3/17/2019)
Hardy County.  (2/15/2020)
Harrison County.  (3/19/2019)
Jackson County.  (6/18/2017)

Lewis County.  (9/12/2021)
Lincoln County.  (3/21/2019)
Logan County.  (3/21/2019)
Marion County.  (3/18/2019)
Marshall County.  (2/7/2018)
Mason County.  (9/10/2021)
McDowell County.  (7/10/2017)
Mercer County.  (3/20/2019)
Mingo County.  (9/10/2021 update)

Monroe County.  (9/12/2021)

Nicholas County.  (5/21/2021)

Pendleton County.  (9/11/2021)

Ritchie County.  (9/12/2021)
Summers County.  (3/25/2018)
Wayne County.  (3/24/2018)
Wetzel County.  (9/11/2021 update)

Wirt County.  (9/10/2021)
Wood County.  (1/15/2019)
Wyoming County.  (3/20/2019)

Wisconsin
6th congressional district.  (1/27/2018)
Adams County.  (2/6/2017)
Barron County.  (1/3/2020)
Buffalo County.  (3/19/2017)
Burnett County.  (2/24/2018)
Clark County,.  (8/13/2018)
Crawford County.  (5/14/2018)

DeKalb County.  (8/20/2021)
Florence County.  (11/13/2019)
Fond du Lac County.  (3/7/2018)  
Forest County.  (6/16/2019)
Grant County.  (5/16/2018)
Green Lake County.  (1/26/2018)
Jackson County.  (3/8/2018)
Johnson Creek.  (1/21/2017)
Juneau County.  (2/23/2017)
Lafayette County.  (5/16/2018)
Langlade County,.  (6/9/2019)
Lincoln County.  (1/14/2020)
Manitowoc County.  (8/10/2017)
Monroe County.  (3/8/2018)
Oconto County.  (7/24/2018)
Oneida County.  (4/24/2017)
Pepin County.  (12/21/2017)
Price County.  (11/1/2022 update)
Richland County.  (11/10/2017)
Rusk County.  (6/30/2019)
Sauk County.  (5/14/2018)
Sawyer County.  (3/20/2017)
Taylor County.  (12/23/2018 update)
Trempealeau County.  (5/28/2019)
Vernon County.  (5/14/2018)

Waushara County.  (2/6/2017)
Winnebago County.  (11/27/2017)
Wood County.  (3/8/2018)