Sunday, November 8, 2026

Wisconsin Democrats trifecta flip #8: Democrat Jeremiah Fredrickson defeats 3-term Republican incumbent Clint Moses and flips 92nd Assembly District

 
Wisconsin Democrats needed 5 seats to flip the Assembly.  They flipped 8.
 
Fair maps allowed Chippewa Valley voters to show off their Democratic cred.  The GOP packing and cracking of the Eau Claire area was the primary reason pre-2024 elections were so lopsided.  (See "related reading" below.)
  
From GOP gerrymandering (2020 independent challenger, 2022) 
to fair maps (2024, 2026)
Election results:  Ballotpedia
Headline:  WCLW, 11/5/2026

James Kelly reports:
Fredrickson's victory means all three State Assembly Districts included in the 31st State Senate District are now under Democratic control. In a statement after declaring victory, Fredrickson said "Tonight, the voters of the 92nd Assembly District sent a clear message: it's time for new leadership that puts our families, our farms, small businesses, and Wisconsin first." 
Flipping the 92nd Assembly District was also a significant step in pursuit of a Democratic trifecta in the State Legislature, as the race was not viewed as one of the more favorable battlegrounds for Democrats. In total, Democrats flipped eight seats in the State Assembly to take a 54-45 majority. Combined with their new majority in the State Senate and David Crowley's victory in the race for Governor, the Democratic Party of Wisconsin will control both chambers of the Legislature and the Governor's Office for the first time since 2010.

Original 9/29/2026 post, "Wisconsin 2026 midterms: Democrat Jeremiah Fredrickson challenges 3-term Republican incumbent Clint Moses in 82nd Assembly District", starts here.

Before redistricting, the 92nd Assembly District included all but the northwest corner of Buffalo County, all of Trempealeau County, and western Jackson County.
 
Redistricting created a compact district that includes portions of Dunn and Chippewa counties, including the cities of Menomonie and Chippewa Falls.

Maps and election results:  Ballotpedia

The 92nd Assembly District has been reliably red, although redistricting has made it a bit more competitive.  Republican Clint Moses won by 7.7 percentage points in 2024, but that might not be large enough to overcome Democratic enthusiasm in 2026.  It's a long shot, but Jeremiah Fredrickson has a shot a flipping this district.

It's not an apples-to-apples comparison, but Fredrickson received 5,015 votes out of 6,335 cast in his competitive primary where as Moses received 4,711 votes out of 4,727 cast running unopposed in his primary.


Related reading:

Malia Jones explains:
Two core concepts of gerrymandering were central to the arguments presented to the high court: cracking and packing. A third process, known as stacking, also crops up in gerrymandered political maps, but was not the focus of Gill v. Whitford.
Cracking and packing both refer to specific ways of drawing legislative boundaries with the outcomes of elections in mind. These two processes operate in tension with one another, but both can be implemented by a party in power seeking to maximize its electoral chances through gerrymandering. 
Packing refers to the practice of drawing particular districts in such a way as to ensure that another party's candidate wins that seat by a tremendous margin. Although the opposing party is all but guaranteed the seat, packing makes surrounding districts less competitive, and thus tips the balance of power in the legislative body overall toward the ruling party. 
Cracking involves drawing districts in such a way as to divide a concentration of specific types of voters across several districts such that they are a minority in each one, with practically no hope of achieving representation in any of the districts. This practice also helps make districts less competitive. [emphasis added]

Other Wisconsin 2026 election posts:
1st Assembly District.  (6/11/2026)
2nd Assembly District.  (6/14/2026)
3rd Assembly District.  (6/15/2026)
4th Assembly District.  (6/17/2026)
5th Assembly District.  (6/18/2026)
6th Assembly District.  (6/20/2026)
7th Assembly District.  (6/21/2026)
8th Assembly District.  (6/21/2026)
9th Assembly District.  (6/22/2026)
10th Assembly District.  (6/23/2026)

11th Assembly District.  (6/23/2026)
12th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
13th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
14th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
15th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
16th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
17th Assembly District.  (6/30/2026)
18th Assembly District.  (6/30/2026)
24th Assembly District.  (4/19/2026)
26th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
29th Assembly District.  (7/10/2026)

30th Assembly District.  (7/11/2026)
31st Assembly District.  (7/12/2026)
33rd Assembly District.  (7/15/2026)
34th Assembly District.  (4/24/2026)
35th Assembly District.  (4/15/2026)
36th Assembly District.  (7.16.2026)
37th Assembly District.  (4/20/2026)
39th Assembly District.  (7/18/2026)

40th Assembly District.  (7/19/2026)
41st Assembly District.  (7/20/2026)
42nd Assembly District.  (7/21/2026)
45th Assembly District.  (7/23/2026)
46th Assembly District.  (7/24/2026)
47th Assembly District.  (7/25/2026)
48th Assembly District.  (7/27/2026) 
49th Assembly District.  (7/28/2026)

50th Assembly District.  (7/29/2026)
51st Assembly District.  (7/30/2026)
52nd Assembly District.  (7/31/2026)
58th Assembly District.  (4/12/2026)
59th Assembly District.  (4/10/2026)

61st Assembly District.  (8/16/2026)
62th Assembly District.  (8/11/2026)
63rd Assembly District.  (8/16/2026)
64th Assembly District.  (8/17/2026)
65th Assembly District.  (8/18/2026)
67th Assembly District.  (8/24/2026)
68th Assembly District.  (8/25/2026)
69th Assembly District.  (8/26/2026)

70th Assembly District.  (8/27/2026)
72nd Assembly District.  (8/29/2026)
73rd Assembly District.  (8/31/2026)
78th Assembly District.  (9/14/2026)
79th Assembly District.  (9/15/2026)

80th Assembly District.  (9/16/2026)
81st Assembly District.  (9/17/2026)
83rd Assembly District.  (9/20/2026)
84th Assembly District.  (9/21/2026)
85th Assembly District.  (9/22/2026)
86th Assembly District.  (9/23/2026)
87th Assembly District.  (9/24/2026)
88th Assembly District.  (9/25/2026)

90th Assembly District.  (9/27/2026)
91st Assembly District.  (9/28/2026)
92nd Assembly District.  (9/29/2026)
93rd Assembly District.  (9/30/2026) 
94th Assembly District.  (10/1/2026)
96th Assembly District.  (10/3/2026)
97th Assembly District.  (10/4/2026)
98th Assembly District.  (10/5/2026)
99th Assembly District.  (10/6/2026)

1st Senate District.  (10/7/2026)
3rd Senate District.  (10/8/2026)
5th Senate District.  (10/9/2026)
7th Senate District.  (10/11/2026)
9th Senate District.  (10/12/2026)
11th Senate District.  (10/13/2026)
13th Senate District.  (10/14/2026)
15th Senate District.  (10/15/2026)
17th Senate District.  (10/16/2026)
19th Senate District.  (10/17/2026)
21st Senate District.  (10/18/2026)
23rd Senate District.  (10/19/2026)
25th Senate District.  (10/20/2026)
27th Senate District.  (10/21/2026)
29th Senate District.  (10/23/2026)
31st Senate District.  (10/25/2026)
33rd Senate District.  (10/27/2026)

USA box office for the 45th weekend 2017-2026

 
USA box office on the 45th weekend of 2026 is up 43% compared to same weekend last year when Predator: Badlands was the top-grossing movie for the weekend. Godzilla Minus Zero is the #1 movie this weekend.

But it's down 44% from 2022's peak Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ruled the box office on weekend.

 

Variety, 11/8/2027

Rebecca Rubin reports:
Ticket sales for “Godzilla Minus Zero” register as the largest opening for a live-action foreign-language film in North America, shattering the record set by China’s martial arts-inspired “Hero” with $17.8 million in 2002. The R-rated “Godzilla” sequel benefited from sterling reviews and strong audience scores (a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and “A” grade on CinemaScore exit polls), as well as outsized interest from premium large formats. It’s the first Japanese production ever filmed for Imax, and the company’s bigger and brighter screens have contributed a huge $12.7 million, or 40% of domestic grosses. It wasn’t just Imax that appealed to audiences. PLFs, including Dolby, accounted for a staggering 74% of ticket sales. By comparison, “The Odyssey” collected 53% of opening weekend returns from PLFs.  
[snip] 
“The Cat in the Hat” was well received by audiences, earning an “A” grade on CinemaScore, which could help in terms of box office longevity. Critics weren’t as kind, saddling the movie with a 45% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Other box office posts:
2026
44th weekend.  (11/1)
43rd weekend.  (10/25)
42nd weekend.  (10/18)
41st weekend.  (10/11)
40th weekend.  (10/4)
39th weekend.  (9/27)
38th weekend.  (9/20)
37th weekend.  (9/13)
36th weekend.  (9/6)
35th weekend.  (8/30)
34th weekend.  (8/23)
33th weekend.  (8/16)
32nd weekend.  (8/9)
31st weekend.  (8/2)
30th weekend.  (7/26)
29th weekend.  (7/19)
28th weekend.  (7/12)
27th weekend.  (7/5)
26th weekend.  (6/28)
25th weekend.  (6/21)
24th weekend.  (6/14)
22nd weekend.  (6/7)
21st weekend.  (6/6)
20th weekend.  (5/17)
19th weekend.  (5/10)
18th weekend.  (5/3)
17th weekend.  (4/26)
16th weekend.  (4/19)
15th weekend.  (4/12)
14th weekend.  (4/5)
13th weekend.  (3/29)
12th weekend.  (3/22)
11th weekend.  (3/15)
10th weekend.  (3/8)
9th weekend.  (3/1)
8th weekend.  (2/22)
7th weekend.  (2/15)
6th weekend.  (2/8)
5th weekend.  (2/1)
4th weekend.  (1/25)
3rd weekend.  (1/18)
2nd weekend.  (1/11)
1st weekend.  (1/4)

2025
52nd weekend.  (12/28)
51st weekend.  (12/28)
50th weekend.  (12/14)
49th weekend.  (12/7)
48th weekend.  (11/30) 
47th weekend.  (11/23)
46th weekend.  (11/16)
45th weekend.  (11/9)
44th weekend.  (11/2)
43rd weekend.  (10/26)
42nd weekend.  (10/19)
41st weekend.  (10/12)
40th weekend.  (10/5)
39th weekend.  (9/28)
38th weekend.  (9/21)
37th weekend.  (9/14)
36th weekend.  (9/9)
35th weekend.  (9/9)
34th weekend.  (8/24)
33rd weekend.  (8/17)
32nd weekend.  (8/10)
31st weekend.  (8/3)
30th weekend.  (7/27)
29th weekend.  (7/20)
28th weekend.  (7/13)
27th weekend.  (7/6)
26th weekend.  (6/29)
25th weekend.  (6/22)
24th weekend.  (6/15)
23rd weekend.  (6/8)
22nd weekend.  (6/1)
20th weekend.  (5/18)
19th weekend.  (5/11)
18th weekend.  (5/4)
17th weekend.  (4/27)
16th weekend.  (4/20)
15th weekend.  (4/13)
14th weekend.  (4/6) 
13th weekend.  (3/30)
12th weekend.  (3/23)
11th weekend.  (3/16)
10th weekend.  (3/9)
9th weekend.  (3/2)
8th weekend.  (2/23)
7th weekend.  (2/16)
6th weekend.  (2/9)
5th weekend.  (2/2)
4th weekend.  (1/26)
3rd weekend.  (1/19)
2nd weekend.  (1/12)
1st weekend.  (1/5)

2024
Easter weekend.  (3/31)

2023

2022
Third weekend in December.  (12/19)First weekend in December.  (12/5)Going down: October 2022 box office drops 44% compared to 2018. (11/3)

Wisconsin Democrats trifecta flip #7: Democrat Becky Nichols defeats Republican David Daniels and flips the 53th Assembly District (open seat)

 
Wisconsin Democrats needed 5 seats to flip the Assembly.  They flipped 8.
 
Incumbent GOP Rep. Dean Kaufert chose not to run for re-election.  His name recognition as a former Assembly representative and mayor of Neenah no doubt help him notch a very slim win in 2024.  Two years later Democrat Becky Nichols scored a convincing 15-point victory over her Republican opponent.

From GOP gerrymandering (2020 independent challenger, 2022) 
to fair maps (2024, 2026)
Election results:  Ballotpedia
Headline:  Appleton Post Crescent, 11/4/2026

Duke Behnke reports:
Democrats flipped Wisconsin Assembly District 53 from red to blue in the Nov. 3 election, but Republicans won seven of the 10 contested legislative races in the Fox Cities. 
Menasha Democrat Becky Nichols defeated Neenah Republican David Daniels and Menasha independent Rachael Dowling to win a two-year term representing District 53. She will succeed Dean Kaufert, R-Neenah, who didn't seek reelection.

The August 11th primaries set the stage for a flip by the Democrats, as Nichols received nearly double the number of votes that Daniel did.  Both candidates ran unopposed.



Original 8/7/2026 post, "Wisconsin 2026 elections: Open seat in the 53th Assembly District" starts here.

Prior to redistricting, the 53rd Assembly District included the western portion of Fond du Lac County and all of Winnebago County save most of the City of Oshkosh.  It's called packing.

The redrawn 53rd comprises the northeast corner of Winnebago County, including the cities of Neenah and Menasha, and a small piece of the City of Appleton in Outagamie County.

 Maps and election results:  Ballotpedia 

Like the 52nd District, the recent elections graph is another apples and oranges comparison.  Moderate Republican Dean Kaufert served 11 terms in the Assembly from 1990-2012, returning for an encore in 2024 after serving as mayor of Neenah for a time.


Who's running to be his replacement?

Related reading:

Malia Jones explains:
Two core concepts of gerrymandering were central to the arguments presented to the high court: cracking and packing. A third process, known as stacking, also crops up in gerrymandered political maps, but was not the focus of Gill v. Whitford.
Cracking and packing both refer to specific ways of drawing legislative boundaries with the outcomes of elections in mind. These two processes operate in tension with one another, but both can be implemented by a party in power seeking to maximize its electoral chances through gerrymandering. 
Packing refers to the practice of drawing particular districts in such a way as to ensure that another party's candidate wins that seat by a tremendous margin. Although the opposing party is all but guaranteed the seat, packing makes surrounding districts less competitive, and thus tips the balance of power in the legislative body overall toward the ruling party. 
Cracking involves drawing districts in such a way as to divide a concentration of specific types of voters across several districts such that they are a minority in each one, with practically no hope of achieving representation in any of the districts. This practice also helps make districts less competitive. [emphasis added]

Other Wisconsin 2026 election posts:
1st Assembly District.  (6/11/2026)
2nd Assembly District.  (6/14/2026)
3rd Assembly District.  (6/15/2026)
4th Assembly District.  (6/17/2026)
5th Assembly District.  (6/18/2026)
6th Assembly District.  (6/20/2026)
7th Assembly District.  (6/21/2026)
8th Assembly District.  (6/21/2026)
9th Assembly District.  (6/22/2026)
10th Assembly District.  (6/23/2026)

11th Assembly District.  (6/23/2026)
12th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
13th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
14th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
15th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
16th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
17th Assembly District.  (6/30/2026)
18th Assembly District.  (6/30/2026)
24th Assembly District.  (4/19/2026)
26th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
29th Assembly District.  (7/10/2026)

30th Assembly District.  (7/11/2026)
31st Assembly District.  (7/12/2026)
33rd Assembly District.  (7/15/2026)
34th Assembly District.  (4/24/2026)
35th Assembly District.  (4/15/2026)
36th Assembly District.  (7.16.2026)
37th Assembly District.  (4/20/2026)
39th Assembly District.  (7/18/2026)

40th Assembly District.  (7/19/2026)
41st Assembly District.  (7/20/2026)
42nd Assembly District.  (7/21/2026)
45th Assembly District.  (7/23/2026)
46th Assembly District.  (7/24/2026)
47th Assembly District.  (7/25/2026)
48th Assembly District.  (7/27/2026) 
49th Assembly District.  (7/28/2026)

50th Assembly District.  (7/29/2026)
51st Assembly District.  (7/30/2026)
52nd Assembly District.  (7/31/2026)
58th Assembly District.  (4/12/2026)
59th Assembly District.  (4/10/2026)

61st Assembly District.  (8/16/2026)
62th Assembly District.  (8/11/2026)
63rd Assembly District.  (8/16/2026)
64th Assembly District.  (8/17/2026)
65th Assembly District.  (8/18/2026)
67th Assembly District.  (8/24/2026)
68th Assembly District.  (8/25/2026)
69th Assembly District.  (8/26/2026)

70th Assembly District.  (8/27/2026)
72nd Assembly District.  (8/29/2026)
73rd Assembly District.  (8/31/2026)
78th Assembly District.  (9/14/2026)
79th Assembly District.  (9/15/2026)

80th Assembly District.  (9/16/2026)
81st Assembly District.  (9/17/2026)
83rd Assembly District.  (9/20/2026)
84th Assembly District.  (9/21/2026)
85th Assembly District.  (9/22/2026)
86th Assembly District.  (9/23/2026)
87th Assembly District.  (9/24/2026)
88th Assembly District.  (9/25/2026)

90th Assembly District.  (9/27/2026)
91st Assembly District.  (9/28/2026)
92nd Assembly District.  (9/29/2026)
93rd Assembly District.  (9/30/2026) 
94th Assembly District.  (10/1/2026)
96th Assembly District.  (10/3/2026)
97th Assembly District.  (10/4/2026)
98th Assembly District.  (10/5/2026)
99th Assembly District.  (10/6/2026)

1st Senate District.  (10/7/2026)
3rd Senate District.  (10/8/2026)
5th Senate District.  (10/9/2026)
7th Senate District.  (10/11/2026)
9th Senate District.  (10/12/2026)
11th Senate District.  (10/13/2026)
13th Senate District.  (10/14/2026)
15th Senate District.  (10/15/2026)
17th Senate District.  (10/16/2026)
19th Senate District.  (10/17/2026)
21st Senate District.  (10/18/2026)
23rd Senate District.  (10/19/2026)
25th Senate District.  (10/20/2026)
27th Senate District.  (10/21/2026)
29th Senate District.  (10/23/2026)
31st Senate District.  (10/25/2026)
33rd Senate District.  (10/27/2026)