Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Flip or no flip: Virginia 2nd congressional district UPDATE


Flip!  

In a district that Trump won by 3.4 percentage points in 2016, Democratic challenger Elaine Luria defeats the one-and-done Republican incumbent GOP central-casting Scott Taylor by 2.2 percentage points.  More notably, it's a blue-wave, Trump-effect flip of 25 percentage points.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Big whiff for pollsters in this race.





Original 8/28/2018 post, "Virginia's 2nd congressional district is #3 on FiveThirtyEight's list of U.S. House election forecast disagreements", starts here.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree.  (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)

Trump received 48.8% of the vote in 2016 compared to 50.1% for Romney in 2012 and 51.1% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 45.4% of the vote in 2016 compared to 48.2% for Obama in 2012 and 47.9 for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (11/19/2018 update)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (11/23/2018 update)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (11/25/2018 election update)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

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