Flip!
In a district that Trump won by 3.4 percentage points in 2016, Democratic challenger Elaine Luria defeats the one-and-done Republican incumbent GOP central-casting Scott Taylor by 2.2 percentage points. More notably, it's a blue-wave, Trump-effect flip of 25 percentage points.
Big whiff for pollsters in this race.
Original 8/28/2018 post, "Virginia's 2nd congressional district is #3 on FiveThirtyEight's list of U.S. House election forecast disagreements", starts here.
Election Update: Here Are 25 Districts Where Our Model And Other Experts Disagree. (FiveThirtyEight, 8/23/2018)
Trump received 48.8% of the vote in 2016 compared to 50.1% for Romney in 2012 and 51.1% for McCain in 2008.
Clinton received 45.4% of the vote in 2016 compared to 48.2% for Obama in 2012 and 47.9 for Obama in 2008.
Source: govtrack
Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)
Jeff Denham, California 10th. (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th. (10/12/2017)
Open seat. California 39th. (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)
Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th. (11/8/2018 update)
Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)
Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)
Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (11/11/2018 update)
Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (11/12/2018 update)
Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (11/12/2018 update)
Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (11/13/2018 update)
Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (11/15/2018 update)
Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (11/19/2018 update)
Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th. (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th. (11/23/2018 update)
Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)
Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)
Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (11/25/2018 election update)
Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th. (9/2/2018)
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