Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Flip or no flip: New York 1st congressional district UPDATE

No flip.  Republican Lee Zeldin wins a third term in the U.S. House  

Source:  Ballotpedia

Once again, a NY Times/Siena polls finds some people nicht zu Hause.

Democrats have gained a majority in the House, with 233 seats in the next Congress. In New York, 25 of 27 House seats have been decided; two switched hands, all going to Democrats. The number of votes cast for Democrats in House races has increased 48.0 percent from the 2014 midterms, compared with an increase of 23.5 percent for Republicans.

Original 2/12/2018 post, "New York's 1st congressional district is flippable, and Lee Zeldin knows it", starts here.

Rep. Lee Zeldin was first elected to Congress in November 2014.

Source:  Ballotpedia 

Another 'flip flop' in Congress? 2018 midterms give Democrats hope  (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 2/8/2018)
Jaws 5:  Blood in the Water.  This is a Long Island district that Trump won handily, but if a wave is coming, it may be felt here.  The tax plan passed by Republicans (which Zeldin voted against) is anathema in this part of New York and Democrats previously held this seat.  No fewer than six are running to replace Zeldin.

Trump received 54.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 47.2% for Romney in 2012 and 48% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 42.2% of the vote in 2016 compared to 49.6% for Obama in 2012 and 51% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (11/19/2018)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (11/19/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (11/21/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)

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