Flip or no flip: New Jersey 2nd congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Big time. Frank LoBiondo, who had won his last 5 elections by a average margin of 24 percentage points, must have seen the writing on the wall.  

Give the GOP credit.  They knew what they were doing when they threw in the towel.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

I think Stockton University needs to bone up on its outreach to Republicans.  At least they were on the winning side.

Source:  Real Clear Politics

Original 10/10/2018 post, "GOP throws in the towel in the New Jersey 2nd congressional district", starts here.

Open seat.  Republican Frank LoBiondo is retiring after serving 12 terms in the U.S. House

Daily Kos Elections is tracking House districts that either party appears to have conceded. According to its data, there are six Republican-held districts that both the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund1 have opted out of: the California 49th, Iowa 1st, New Jersey 2nd, Pennsylvania 5th, Pennsylvania 6th and Pennsylvania 17th.  (Source:  10/10/2018 FiveThirtyEight Election Update email)

Source:  Ballotpedia

The only poll I found has Democrat Jeff Van Grew ahead of Republican Seth Grossman 55% to 32%.

Not big-time Trump country. 
Trump received 50.6% of the vote in 2016 compared to 45.4% for Romney in 2012 and 45.5% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 46.0% of the vote in 2016 compared to 53.5% for Obama in 2012 and 53.2% for Obama in 2008. 

Source:  govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)