Graph: Reuters, 7/16/2025
Headline: The Message Box, 7/22/2025
Dan Pfeiffer reports:
For nearly a decade, immigration has been central to Trump’s political rise. In 2016, he intuited that a significant segment of the electorate was anxious about immigration. His signature proposal to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it was a dumb idea—but it sent a powerful signal about how aggressively he’d approach the issue. In 2024, Trump again weaponized chaos at the border into a potent wedge. According to the exit polls, he had a 9-point edge on the question of which candidate voters trusted more on immigration, and he won voters who said immigration was their top issue by 80 points.
Trump’s extreme immigration crackdown at the outset of his second term initially put Democrats on the defensive and helped boost his approval ratings.
But a wave of new polling shows that immigration is no longer a political strength for Trump. In fact, it may now be his Achilles’ heel—one with serious implications for 2026, 2028, and the future of immigration reform.
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