Sunday, November 8, 2026

Are the polls underestimating Republicans? No canary in the cornfields in Iowa this year!

 
According to Real Clear Polling averages for the final few weeks of the campaign for Iowa U.S. Senator, Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson were in a dead heat, tied at 47.1%

The election day reality:  Turek flipped another red Senate seat for Democrats, this one by 4.1 percentage points.

Headline:  Washington Post, 10/8/2026
Poll averages and election results:  Real Clear Polling

Scott Clement reports for the Washington Post:
Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini noted that, on average, from 2018 to 2024, polls at this stage overestimated support for Democratic Senate candidates by 6.2 percentage points in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, all states that have competitive Senate races this year. Separately, State Navigate pollster Chaz Nuttycombe said rural Republicans didn’t respond to their survey in an Iowa legislative district, saying it could be a “Canary in the Cornfields for Iowa polling this year.”

Related posts:
Are the polls underestimating Republicans?  Most definitely not in Texas!  ()
Are the polls underestimating Republicans?  Certainly not in Texas!  ()
Even a near-trillionaire like Elon Musk can't buy an election (Texas Ken Paxton edition).  (11/6/2026)

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