With its A- FiveThirtyEight rating, Trafalgar turns midterm polling into a clown show (Arizona edition)

 "Masters with a one-point lead!" crows Bobby

Sources:   New York Times, Slate

How about seconds, Bobby?

Trafalgar had the Republican challenger Blake Master with a 1.3 percentage-point lead in its final AZ Senate poll of the campaign.  Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly won the election by 4.9 percentage points.  That's an 6.2 point oopsie differential for Bobby.

Screenshots and headline:  Slate, 11/10/2022 (top screenshot PhotoFunia-ed)

Poll rating: FiveThirtyEight (green box added)

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Other Trafalgar clown show visits: 

Governor's race in Michigan.  (11/11/2022)

Governor's race in Pennsylvania.  (11/14/2022)

Governor's race in Wisconsin.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Colorado.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in New Hampshire.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Pennsylvania.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Vermont.  (11/11/2022)

Senate race in Washington.  (11/11/2022)