Headline: FiveThirtyEight, 6/5/2023
Ask six Republican candidates for president whether they think there should be a national ban on abortion, and you’ll get at least seven different answers. In just the past two months, current and prospective candidates have committed at various points to the general idea of a federal bans on abortion (maybe 15 weeks of pregnancy), said it’s a states’ rights issue but they’re looking at “alternatives,” expressed support for six-week bans at the state level while declining to say whether they think a national version would be appropriate, and said they support efforts to get a widely used abortion drug “off the market.”
All of this waffling might suggest that the Republican Party is struggling to find a path forward on abortion after last year’s midterm elections, where abortion rights was a drag on GOP candidates in swing states. But something more complicated is happening. Republicans passed a significant number of first-trimester restrictions at the state level this spring, ranging from full bans to bans on abortion after 12 weeks of pregnancy, none of which are popular with most Americans. And many of the GOP candidates are coalescing around some form of national ban, even if they aren’t on the same page about the specifics.
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