Covid Chronicles: Chapter 50 Urban vs. Rural

 

Sunday, June 7, 2020 

As I’m sure you’re aware, COVID cases aren’t evenly distributed among the counties of a state. In Pennsylvania, for example, Warren County has the 3rd smallest number of cases – 5, at this point – while each of the southeastern counties have thousands of cases, as well as a much higher rate of cases per 100,000 people. A larger population concentration increases the odds of transmission, it appears. 

The same pattern can be seen here in Wisconsin, with one notable exception. The orange counties represent the 10 with the highest rate of COVID cases per 100,000 person. Except for Forest County in the North Woods, the counties re located in the east central and southeastern parts of the state. Three of the counties with the worst rates – Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha – stack up on the Illinois border along Lake Michigan. Brown County’s numbers are fueled by outbreaks in meatpacking and food processing plants, most of them in Green Bay. Dane County, the state’s 2nd largest (population: 547,000) has 814 cases, which translated into a per 100,000 rate of 153.8, barely enough to crack the top 20. Unlike Dodge County, home of the state’s largest prison, Dane has no identified ‘hot spots’. Not so Forest County. Most of its 33 cases are the result of an outbreak at a health and rehabilitation center. Forest was also one of the last Wisconsin counties to announce a confirmed case of COVID. Perhaps some complacency had settled in among its 9,000 residents. 

The majority of counties with the smallest rates per 100,000 people are located in northern Wisconsin. All of them are rural and, for the most part, experiencing a decline in population. The population of Pepin County, for example – the sliver of mauve in the west-central part of the state – peaked in 1900. 

Source:  Wisconsin Department of Health Services

I update the above bar graphs in a weekly basis. Today, Portage County located in central Wisconsin and home to the Steven Points campus of the UW system, fell off the list. Its number of cases spiked to 33, up from 14, in two days, the result of numerous infections that took place during a college graduation party. In the same vein, Winnebago County, home to the Oshkosh campus of the UW System, saw its case numbers increase 50% -- from 238 to 354 – in 1 week. The county health department reports that the biggest increase has occurred in the 20-29 age group. 

Winnebago County is new to the top 10 list this week.