Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Based on elections returns, Barack Obama did not hold his own in rural Wisconsin counties


The visual evidence

        2008                       2012
          59 counties for Obama                                    35 counties for Obama


John Nichols: Trump and Perdue couldn't care less about rural Wisconsin.  (Capital Times, 10/8/2019)
Trump ran well in rural America in 2016, at a time when the Democratic Party was particularly neglectful when it came to reaching out to farm country and the small towns of states such as Wisconsin. The results were devastating for the Democrats. While Barack Obama had held his own in rural counties in 2008 and 2012, the numbers for Hillary Clinton in those same counties were insufficient to maintain Democratic advantages in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — the states where narrow wins gave Trump an Electoral College advantage even as he lost the popular vote by 2.9 million ballots.  [emphasis added]

The numerical evidence.  

Source of all tables:  Wisconsin Elections Commission

With 17 rural counties shifting from DEM in 2008 to REP in 2012, it's a stretch to say that Obama held his own in his successful run for a second term.  An erosion of Democratic voters was already underway.  In 2012, Obama received 16,539 fewer votes in the 17 counties that Romney flipped, and Romney increased McCain's 2008 vote tally by 16,906. 



The remaining seven, more populated counties that Romney flipped show a similar pattern.  Obama received 20,868 fewer votes in 2012 than in 2008, and Romney beat McCain's 2008 tally by 32,953.





Related post:
Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue throws Wisconsin's small dairy farmers under the tractor.  (10/1/2019)

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