The counties with a leftward shift are among the state’s youngest and most populous, as well as the ones already most inclined to support Democrats:
- Polk, the state’s largest and home to Des Moines (0.5% swing left);
- Dallas, containing many of Des Moines’ western suburbs (4.9% swing left);
- Story, including Iowa State University in Ames (1.8% swing left);
Democrats point to four special election victories this year in Iowa where the party has significantly overperformed compared with the 2024 presidential election, saying it shows their potential strength going into 2026. But Republicans have said the wins aren't indicative of what to expect in a general election.
- And Johnson, home of the University of Iowa in Iowa City (4.6% swing left).
All four of the counties mentioned above rank in the top 5 of population growth in Iowa.
On the other hand, the majority of Iowa's 99 counties are experiencing population loss. Many rural counties have fewer residents now than they did in 1900, with Adams County leading the way in this competitive category.


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