Alan J. Borsuk On Education: Average school district will face rocky road. (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 8/11/2012)
2011-12 school year. General assessment: "OK". A drop in per student spending is pretty much recovered through reduced spending on employee benefits -- "more or less a balanced deal from the standpoint of most school districts", as Borsuk describes it.
2012-13 school year. General assessment: "Not so good". School districts need to dip into their fund balances, or what is often referred to as a rainy-day fund.
2013-14 school year. General assessment. Things get worse, even with younger teachers getting paid less than the retiring teachers they replace, a scenario that is already "happening in general".
2014-15 school year. General assessment. See previous school year.
2015-16 school year. Cue the Dragnet theme music. Excerpt: Fairly Normal is running a big deficit, has used up all its savings and can't pay all its bills. I'm not exactly sure what we would call that when it happens to a unit of government in Wisconsin, but in other circumstances, I believe it's called bankruptcy.
The best way -- a.k.a the one big "unless" -- in avoiding this timeline? .....the Legislature puts more money in the school aid pot and allows districts to spend more per student when it creates the state budget for 2013-'15.
Pardon my cynicism.
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