Saturday, November 7, 2026

Quantis Insights, your plates of crow are ready! (GOP wet dream banquet edition)

 
Fantasy poll results:  Quantis Insights
Actual results:  New York Times

Here's how Quantis explains its findings:
Five days before Election Day, Ken Paxton holds a one-point lead in the Texas Senate race and Greg Abbott leads by five for Governor. 
Our October 26 to 28 survey of 1,221 likely voters has Paxton at 48.7 percent and James Talarico at 47.6. Ted Brown, the Libertarian, takes 1.4 and 2.2 percent are undecided. The margin of error on the difference between two candidates runs about ±6.4, so Paxton's edge is within it, but the direction has been consistent: he led our early October survey too, and the lead has grown slightly since. 
Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa 50.7 to 45.8, with Pat Dixon at 1.2 and 2.3 percent undecided. A 4.9-point lead is also inside the margin on a difference. Abbott is the only candidate on either ballot above 50. 
There is not much left to allocate. We pushed the 27 undecided Senate respondents to lean and they split almost evenly: nine Talarico, eight Paxton, ten still undecided. The combined ballot is 49.4 to 48.4, Paxton by one. On the Governor side the 28 undecideds broke ten Abbott to six Hinojosa, which widens that race to 51.6 to 46.3.

Even a near-trillionaire like Elon Musk can't buy an election (Texas Ken Paxton edition).  (11/6/2026)

Wisconsin Democrats trifecta flip #5: Democrat John Kroll defeats 5-term GOP incumbent Patrick Snyder and flips 85th Assembly District


Wisconsin Democrats needed 5 seats to flip the Assembly.  They flipped 8.
 
Incumbent Patrick Snyder won his previous three elections by an average of 10 percentage points.  This time around he lost to his Democratic challenger by nearly 10 point.  Another blue wave GOP casualty

Election results:  Ballotpedia
Headline:  Wausau Pilot Review, 11/4/2026

Shereen Siewert reports:
Democrat John Kroll defeated longtime Republican incumbent Pat Snyder on Tuesday, flipping Wisconsin’s 85th Assembly District seat in a closely watched race.
Kroll received 12,377 votes, or 54%, compared with Snyder’s 10,512 votes, or 45.9%, according to unofficial Marathon County election results. Kroll’s margin of victory was 1,865 votes, with all 29 precincts reporting. 
Snyder, first elected in 2016, was seeking a sixth term. He won reelection in 2024 by about 6.5 percentage points.
Kroll, 43, of Wausau, is a former Marathon County Board supervisor who works in energy efficiency. He campaigned on lowering costs for working families, increasing public school funding, expanding access to health care and addressing rising utility bills.

Kroll received 5,811 votes out of 5,823 cast running unopposed in his primary election.  Snyder received 5,188 votes out of  5,206 cast in his primary election.  Not enough of a difference to predict an easy win for Kroll with full assurance.  


Original 9/12/2026 post, "Wisconsin 2026 elections: Democrat John Kroll challenges 5-term GOP incumbent Patrick Snyder in 85th Assembly District", starts here.

Before redistricting, the 85th Assembly District in the GOP gerrymandered 29th Senate District (see below)  included eastern Marathon County, fingering its way into Wausau and Rothschild, but not Weston and Kronenwetter.  

Redistricting created a more compact, Wausau-centric district.   It includes the City of Wausau and Village of Weston, but not the villages of Rothschild and Kronenwetter.  The population of Wausau and its suburbs is about 72,000, which is at least 12,000 residents too many to fit into a single Assembly district.

Maps and election results:  Ballotpedia

In 2024, Republican incumbent Patrick Snyder won re-election in the 85th District by his smallest margin to date:  6.5 percentage points.  With Trump's approval rating in the toilet and a blue wave building its way to November, Democratic challenger John Kroll has a chance to flip this seat.  
   

Shameless GOP-gerrymandered 29th Senate District (2011-2020)
 
Related reading:

Malia Jones explains:
Two core concepts of gerrymandering were central to the arguments presented to the high court: cracking and packing. A third process, known as stacking, also crops up in gerrymandered political maps, but was not the focus of Gill v. Whitford.
Cracking and packing both refer to specific ways of drawing legislative boundaries with the outcomes of elections in mind. These two processes operate in tension with one another, but both can be implemented by a party in power seeking to maximize its electoral chances through gerrymandering. 
Packing refers to the practice of drawing particular districts in such a way as to ensure that another party's candidate wins that seat by a tremendous margin. Although the opposing party is all but guaranteed the seat, packing makes surrounding districts less competitive, and thus tips the balance of power in the legislative body overall toward the ruling party. 
Cracking involves drawing districts in such a way as to divide a concentration of specific types of voters across several districts such that they are a minority in each one, with practically no hope of achieving representation in any of the districts. This practice also helps make districts less competitive. [emphasis added]

Other Wisconsin 2026 election posts:
1st Assembly District.  (6/11/2026)
2nd Assembly District.  (6/14/2026)
3rd Assembly District.  (6/15/2026)
4th Assembly District.  (6/17/2026)
5th Assembly District.  (6/18/2026)
6th Assembly District.  (6/20/2026)
7th Assembly District.  (6/21/2026)
8th Assembly District.  (6/21/2026)
9th Assembly District.  (6/22/2026)
10th Assembly District.  (6/23/2026)

11th Assembly District.  (6/23/2026)
12th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
13th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
14th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
15th Assembly District.  (6/25/2026)
16th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
17th Assembly District.  (6/30/2026)
18th Assembly District.  (6/30/2026)
24th Assembly District.  (4/19/2026)
26th Assembly District.  (4/17/2026)
29th Assembly District.  (7/10/2026)

30th Assembly District.  (7/11/2026)
31st Assembly District.  (7/12/2026)
33rd Assembly District.  (7/15/2026)
34th Assembly District.  (4/24/2026)
35th Assembly District.  (4/15/2026)
36th Assembly District.  (7.16.2026)
37th Assembly District.  (4/20/2026)
39th Assembly District.  (7/18/2026)

40th Assembly District.  (7/19/2026)
41st Assembly District.  (7/20/2026)
42nd Assembly District.  (7/21/2026)
45th Assembly District.  (7/23/2026)
46th Assembly District.  (7/24/2026)
47th Assembly District.  (7/25/2026)
48th Assembly District.  (7/27/2026) 
49th Assembly District.  (7/28/2026)

50th Assembly District.  (7/29/2026)
51st Assembly District.  (7/30/2026)
52nd Assembly District.  (7/31/2026)
58th Assembly District.  (4/12/2026)
59th Assembly District.  (4/10/2026)

61st Assembly District.  (8/16/2026)
62th Assembly District.  (8/11/2026)
63rd Assembly District.  (8/16/2026)
64th Assembly District.  (8/17/2026)
65th Assembly District.  (8/18/2026)
67th Assembly District.  (8/24/2026)
68th Assembly District.  (8/25/2026)
69th Assembly District.  (8/26/2026)

70th Assembly District.  (8/27/2026)
72nd Assembly District.  (8/29/2026)
73rd Assembly District.  (8/31/2026)
78th Assembly District.  (9/14/2026)
79th Assembly District.  (9/15/2026)

80th Assembly District.  (9/16/2026)
81st Assembly District.  (9/17/2026)
83rd Assembly District.  (9/20/2026)
84th Assembly District.  (9/21/2026)
85th Assembly District.  (9/22/2026)
86th Assembly District.  (9/23/2026)
87th Assembly District.  (9/24/2026)
88th Assembly District.  (9/25/2026)

90th Assembly District.  (9/27/2026)
91st Assembly District.  (9/28/2026)
92nd Assembly District.  (9/29/2026)
93rd Assembly District.  (9/30/2026) 
94th Assembly District.  (10/1/2026)
96th Assembly District.  (10/3/2026)
97th Assembly District.  (10/4/2026)
98th Assembly District.  (10/5/2026)
99th Assembly District.  (10/6/2026)

1st Senate District.  (10/7/2026)
3rd Senate District.  (10/8/2026)
5th Senate District.  (10/9/2026)
7th Senate District.  (10/11/2026)
9th Senate District.  (10/12/2026)
11th Senate District.  (10/13/2026)
13th Senate District.  (10/14/2026)
15th Senate District.  (10/15/2026)
17th Senate District.  (10/16/2026)
19th Senate District.  (10/17/2026)
21st Senate District.  (10/18/2026)
23rd Senate District.  (10/19/2026)
25th Senate District.  (10/20/2026)
27th Senate District.  (10/21/2026)
29th Senate District.  (10/23/2026)
31st Senate District.  (10/25/2026)
33rd Senate District.  (10/27/2026)

Oregon reports first case of bird flu since 2024

 
Headline:  WATT Poultry, 11/5/2026

Roy Graber reports:
Article Summary 
Highly pathogenic avian influenza has been confirmed in a commercial laying hen flock of 94,200 birds in Clackamas County, Oregon, marking the first commercial HPAI case in the state since October 2024. The farm has been placed under quarantine following the confirmation by state and federal animal health agencies. 
  • HPAI confirmed in 94,200 laying hens in Clackamas County, Oregon on November 2 
  • First commercial poultry HPAI case in more than two years in Oregon 
  • Farm placed under state quarantine by Oregon state veterinarian 
  • Previous commercial case occurred October 23, 2024, also in Clackamas County with 150,000 birds 
  • Backyard poultry flocks have tested positive since then, but do not affect international trade under WOAH rules

Washington State reports bird flu outbreak at commercial poultry facility

 
Headline:  KOMO Seattle, 10/31/2026

KOMO news staff report:
Bird flu has been detected at a commercial poultry facility in Pierce County, the first such detection in Washington this year, state agriculture officials said. 
No human cases have been identified at the facility. Public health agencies are monitoring workers who were exposed to infected birds as a precaution. The risk to the general public remains low, officials said. 
The affected facility is under quarantine, and disease control measures are underway. Eggs from infected birds will be destroyed and will not enter the food supply.

Related posts:
November 2026

October 2026

March 2026

February 2026

November 2025

Bird flu outbreak on Illinois farm spread to cats and rats and wild birds

 
Headline:  EurekAlert, University of Illinois, 11/5/2026

An outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus that nearly wiped out an Illinois farmer’s backyard flock also spread to a domestic cat and wild rats on the farm, an analysis of the animals by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory and the University of Missouri Veterinary Medical Diagnostic Laboratory found. 
“Bird flu does not stop at birds. On this farm, a cat and a rat were infected too, most likely after contact with dead or dying infected birds, and any wild animal that scavenges or handles carcasses could be exposed the same way,” said Dr. Leyi Wang, the virology section head at the U. of I. Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory and corresponding author of the report.

Related posts:
October 2026

March 2026
  

MISCREANT PREACHERS: Child exploitation in the Name of the Lord (#419 in a series)

 
 Mugshot and headline:  WACB Taylorsville NC, 11/5/2026

A November 2 warrant for arrest, issued by the Alleghany County Sheriff’s Office, charged Bobby Randall Miller, 74, of Roaring Gap with three counts of third-degree sexual exploitation of a minor and two counts of second-degree sexual exploitation of a minor. 
The warrant said Miller allegedly possessed visual representations of minors in sexual situations. 
On August 30, members of the Alleghany County Sheriff’s Office and the North Carolina State Bureau of Investigation responded to a call for service in Roaring Gap, regarding suspicious material on an individual’s cellphone. Investigators developed probable cause to seize the phone and submit it to the SBI laboratory for forensic examination. After the examination was completed, Miller was charged with the felony offenses.

"Whoever says 'I know him' but does not keep his commandments is a liar, and the truth is not in him."  (1 John 2:4)


Other miscreant preacher posts (which cover a multitude of sins):
October 2026 (20)
Tracy Black.  (10/31)
Thomas Osbeck.  (10/29)
Paul Lewis.  (10/28)
Benjamin Garate.  (10/24)
Richard Shealy.  (10/23)
Carl Lentz.  (10/22)
Jerry Finchum.  (10/19)
Jared Salmons.  (10/17)
Cristian Popescu.  (10/15)
Brandon Dillard.  (10/13)
Andrew Benton.  (10/10)
Terrance Booker.  (10/7)
Jared Denney.  (10/6)
Scott Hughes.  (10/5)
Barry Spears. (10/4)

September 2026 (16)
David Wigington.  (9/27)
Kevin Binette.  (9/25)
Caleb Ray.  (9/24)
Louie George.  (9/19)
James Randolph.  (9/18)
Burk Parsons.  (9/17)
Andrew Farhet.  (9/6)
Wade Booth.  (9/4)
Daniel Willis.  (9/3)

August 2026  (21)
Richard Pughe.  (8/30)
Billy Anders.  (8/28)
David Johnson.  (8/27)
Daniel Muir.  (8/24)
Jeremiah Swaw.  (8/23)
Johnny Hunt.  (8/22)
Gregory Madeya.  (8/20)
Jason Coulter.  (8/19)
Andrew Buzzell.  (8/18)
Lino Hernandez.  (8/14)
David Taylor.  (8/11)
Monty Chitty.  (8/9)

July 2026 (19)
Marcus Owens.  (7/30)
Ryan McCandless.  (7/23)
Joel Leiniz.  (7/22)
Tracy Hamilton.  (7/19)
Kevin Jones.  (7/16)
David Mercer.  (7/12)
Eddy Noelsaint.  (7/11)
Jeffrey Nowak.  (7/10)
Noel Walker.  (7/9)
Daniel Rabon.  (7/5)
George Finney.  (7/3)

June 2026 (23)
Tony Spell.  (6/24)
C. J. Johnson.  (6/21)
Reggie Joiner.  (6/18)
Jose Briseno.  (6/18)
Nicholas Rains.  (6/17)
David Ritchie.  (6/16)
Jose Seez.  (6/13)
Derek Nelson.  (6/9)
Alan Chambers.  (6/9)
Elie Dorcius.  (6/6)

May 2026 (10)
Robert Byrnes.  (5/19)
Terry Reed.  (5/8)

April 2026 (19)
Leslie Williams.  (4/29)
Joshua Trent.  (4/28)
Emilio Alberto Esperanza-Pacheco. (4/27)
Philip Vaught.  (4/23)
Kevin Jbon.  (4/18)
Ryan Pena.  (4/7)

March 2026 (29, a new monthly record)
February 2026 (23, a new monthly record)
Caleb Flynn.  (2/26)
Tyrell Brown.  (2/24)
Jonathan Elwing.  (2/22)
Garrett Harmon.  (2/21)
Elco Vallier.  (2/19)
David Rodgers. (2/17)
Rod Loy.  (2/15)
William Robbins.  (2/13)
Robert Whipley.  (2/12)
Isaiah Teague.  (2/5)

January 2026 (14)
Michael Mohr.  (1/30)
Wesley Brobeck.  (1/19)
Korey Lavergne.  (1/17)
Michael Howard.  (1/16)
Joshua Price.  (1/10)
Bruce Neal.  (1/8)

December 2025 (15)
Enrique Molina.  (12/30)
John Paul.  (12/19)
James Watford.  (12/17)
Doug Overmyer.  (12/13)
Joseph Herzing.  (12/10)
Robert Sullivan.  (12/8)
Danny Varnadore.  (12/7)
Roger Scalice.  (12/6)
James Stockton.  (12/3)
Michael Martin.  (12/2)

November 2025 (16):
Mark Vega.  (11/28)
Stephen Santeli Castro.  (11/26)
Yersson Solarte.  (11/23)
Jason Allen.  (11/21)
Glenn Rosenbaum.  (11/17)
Adolfo Castillo.  (11/16)
Quintilo Segrero.  (11/14)
Matthew McGinley.  (11/11)
Eli Regalado.  (11/7)
Andrew Ervin.  (11/6)

October 2025 (15)
Robert L Carter.  (10/23)
Xamie Reyes.  (10/20)
Luis Sosa.  (10/19)
Silas Shelton.  (10/17)
Adrian David.  (10/9)
Virgil Mozee.  (10/7)
Robert Morris.  (10/3)
Ryan McElrath.  (10/2)

September 2025 (10)
Macario Garcia.  (9/26)
John McKinzie.  (9/20)
Isaac Tilden.  (9/19)
Diego Fuller.  (9/17)

August 2025 (7)
Neal Creecy.  (8/22)
Shelton Burkart.  (8/15)

July 2025 (11)
Eli Regalado.  (7/23)
Kenneth Flowers.  (7/18)
John Gibson.  (7/15)
Roy Andrews.  (7/3)

June 2025 (11)
Justin Rhodes.  (6/26)
Dominic Foor.  (6/14)
Ryan McElrath.  (6/10)
Jim Mustain.  (6/7)
Nathan Roach.  (6/3)

May 2025 (11)
Daniel Lamppin.  (5/30)
Alan Buresh.  (5/29)
Daniel Champ.  (5/13)
Paul Dyal. (5/11)
Leo Parker.  (5/8)

April 2025 (7)
Brad Swink.  (4/12)
Jaime Arriaga.  (4/10)
Darren Day.  (4/8)

March 2025 (17)
Joshua Lucero.  (3/26)
Jeffrey Summers.  (3/24)
Sergio Guardia.  (3/22)
Marvin Upton.  (3/21)
Rodger Strong.  (3/20)
Britt Taylor.  (3/19)
Daniel Menelaou.  (3/15)
Robert Morris.  (3/14)
Jose Saez Jr.  (3/12)
Waymon Jordan.  (3/8)

February 2025 (9)
Jesse Santos.  (2/26)
Ruel Barbee.  (2/16)
Lee B. Patrick.  (2/14)
Timothy Nall.  (2/7)

January 2025 (14)
John Fiedler.  (1/26)
James McMillan.  (1/25)
Jeffrey Merrow.  (1/18)
Johel LaFaurie.  (1/17)
Jeff Taylor.  (1/16)
Dallas Majewski.  (1/15)
Bruce Hollen.  (1/14)
Timothy Nall.  (1/9)
 
December 2024 (14)
Edward Monk.  (12/23)
Joshua Lough.  (12/22)
Ignazio Medina.  (12/20)
Anthony Odiong.  (12/19)
Vincent Bishop.  (12/9)
Arturo Alarcon.  (12/8)
Hunter Eubanks.  (12/7)
Roy Shoop.  (12/5)

November 2024 (19)
James McMillan.  (11/30)
Charles Sulivant.  (11/24)
Geoffrey Carter.  (11/22)
John Radcliff.  (11/21)
Garrett Harmon.  (11/20)
Edward R. Monk.  (11/16)
George Bell.  (11/14)
Jose Mora.  (11/13)
William Pounds.  (11/12)
Charles Randall.  (11/9)
Jackson Gatlin.  (11/7)
Charles Goff.  (11/1)

October 2024 (25)
Stephen Johnson.  (10/27)
Josh Howerton.  (10/26)
Craig Stone.  (10/26/2024)
Steven Lawson. (10/25).  
Scott Crenshaw.  (10/25)
Byron Copeland.  (10/25)
Josiah Anthony.  (10/25)
Ronald Goines.  (10/24)
Tony Cammarota.  (10/24)
Robert Morris.  (10/24)
Mike Buster.  (10/23)
Tony Evans.  (10/23)
Terren Dames.  (10/23)
James Randolph.  (10/23)
Matt Queen.  (10/18)
Roy Shoop.  (10/12)
Gabriel Mills.  (10/3)

September 2024 (16)
John Raymond.  (9/27)
Juan Barrios.  (9/23)
Demiro Johnson.  (9/22)
Glen Dean McCoy.  (9/22)
James Swanson.  (9/21)
William Dunfee.  (9/21)
Steven Lawson.  (9/20)
Rocky Goodwin.  (9/19)
William Johnson.  (9/17)
Tim Ballard.  (9/13)