Flip. And here it's all about the Trump effect.
Source: Ballotpedia
Outside of Monmouth, it appears to be amateur hour here.
Source: Real Clear Politics
The kiss of death in New York:
John Faso endorsed by President Trump in 19th district race. (Poughkeepsie Journal, 10/23/2018)
Original 2/12/2018 post, "New York's 19th congressional district is flippable, and John Faso knows it", starts here.
Rep. John Faso was first elected to Congress in November 2016.
Another 'flip flop' in Congress? 2018 midterms give Democrats hope (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 2/8/2018)
Trump won by 7 points here, but Faso did better than that. But former President Obama won here twice, and a field of qualified candidates has emerged -- among them lawyer Antonio Delgado, businessman Brian Flynn, and Iraq War Veteran Patrick Flynn, who between them have raised or contributed more than $3.6 million for their campaigns.
Trump received 50.8% of the vote in 2016 compared to 45.9% for Romney in 2012 and 45% for McCain in 2008.
Clinton received 44.0% of the vote in 2016 compared to 52.1% for Obama in 2012 and 53% for Obama in 2008.
Source: govtrack
Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)
Jeff Denham, California 10th. (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th. (10/12/2017)
Open seat. California 39th. (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)
Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th. (11/8/2018 update)
Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)
Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)
Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (11/11/2018 update)
Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (11/12/2018 update)
Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (11/12/2018 update)
Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (11/13/2018 update)
Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (11/15/2018 update)
Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (11/19/2018 update)
Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th. (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th. (2/12/2018)
Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)
Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)
Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (4/15/2018)
Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th. (9/2/2018)
West Virginia 3rd. (8/28/2018)
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