Flip or no flip: New Jersey 3rd congressional district UPDATE

Flip.  Just barely.  But look at the advantage Tom MacArthur had.

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Thanks to a September NY Times/Siena outlier poll, MacArthur was favored to win by a razor-thin margin.  Instead, he frittered away a 20.4 percentage point margin in 2016 and lost by a razor-thin margin of 1.3 percentage points. 

Let's pause here to give thanks to the twin blowhards, Donald Trump and Chris Christie. for turning Jersey deep blue again.

Source:  Real Clear Politics

11/4/2018 update, "New Jersey 3rd congressional district race remains a toss-up", starts here.

As you can see, except for the September outlier poll, it's an extremely close race.

Source:  Real Clear Politics

As campaigns near the finish line, Trump's 'biggest supporter' spars with challenger.  (nj.com, 11/1/2018)

Two years ago, the incumbent, Tom MacArthur, won re-election to a 2nd term by more than 20 percentage points.  If this election is being seen as a referendum on Trump, as the article states, then Trump has already lost.


Original 10/17/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Tom MacArthur (R-New Jersey)",  starts here.

Republican Tom MacArthur was first elected to Congress in 2014, winning by a margin of 9.6 percentage points.  He more than doubled this spread in his 2016 re-election. 

Source:  Ballotpedia

Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push.  (USA Today, 10/6/2017)

Republicans are afraid, very afraid.  The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.

Source: govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)