Flip or no flip: Minnesota 3rd congressional district UPDATE

Big flip.  in 2016, Republican Erik Paulsen won a 5th term in the House by a margin of 13.7 percentage points.  Two years later, he lost to Democrat Dean Phillips by 11.4 percentage points.  Quite a swing. 

Sources:  Ballotpedia (2012, 2014, 2016), CNN (2018)

Well, once again, both polls had the Democratic challenger winning.

Source:  Real Clear Politics

Dean Phillips wins Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District seat.  (Washington Post, 11/15/2018) 

3/22/2018 update, "Trump's trade agenda puts the vulnerable Erik Paulsen on even shakier ground", starts here.

Reported in Trump’s trade policies slammed by GOP lawmakers.  (Politico, 3/21/2018)

Related reading:
Minnesota has the most 'toss-up' House races of any state.  (MinnPost, 2/12/2018)

And earlier last week, in case you missed it, the Cook Report changed its rating on the race to represent Minnesota’s Third Congressional District from “leans Republican,” to “toss-up.

Original 10/17/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Erik Paulsen (R-Minnesota", starts here.

First elected in 2008, Republican Erik Paulsen has won his last 3 elections by an average margin of about 18 percentage points.

Source:  Ballotpedia

Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push.  (USA Today, 10/6/2017)

Republicans are afraid, very afraid.  The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.

Source: govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd.  (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th.  (10/9/2017)
David Valadao, California 21st.   (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th.  (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th.  (10/12/2017)
Open seat.  California 39th.  (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th.  (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd.  (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th.  (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th.  (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th.  (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th.  (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st.  (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd.  (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd.  (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th.  (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th.  (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd.  (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd.  (10/17/2017)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd.  (10/18/2017)

Open seat.  New Jersey 2nd.  (10/10/2018)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd.  (10/19/2017)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th.  (2/14/2018)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st.  (2/12/2018)
John Faso, New York 19th.  (2/12/2018)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd.  (10/21/2017)
John Katko, New York 24th.  (2/12/2018)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (2/12/2018)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th.  (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th.  (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd.  (4/15/2018)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd.  (4/15/2018)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd.  (8/28/2018)
Disgraced Tom Garrett.  Virginia 5th.  (9/2/2018)
David Brat, Virginia 7th.  (9/2/2018)

West Virginia 3rd.  (8/28/2018)