Retiring Guy's Digest: 2018-11-25

Saturday, December 1, 2018

Wisconsin 2018 elections UPDATE: Who won in the 13th State Senate District?

Senate Majority Leader, career politician, and increaingly corpulent Scott Fitzgerald will begin his 25th year (7th term) in the State Senate next month.

Source: Ballotpedia

Faucet Siphoning Votes from Dane County Art

of the WIGOP Gerrymander

Source: Ballotpedia

Editorial: Top Republican lawmakers should drop their redistricting ruse. (Wisconsin State Journal, 11/11/2018)

But mostly the Republicans’ big advantage in the Legislature is the result of cheating. As much as Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, R-Juneau, and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, R-Rochester, still try to deny the GOP rigged legislative voting districts to their favor, they can’t be taken serious.

Original 6/6/2018 who's running post starts here.

Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

Rematch of 2014 race

Related links:
Scott Fitzgerald 13th Senate District
Zahn for Senate

Related posts:
17 Democratic and 4 Republican incumbents running unopposed in state legislature races. (6/5/2018)
1st Assembly District. (11/16/2018 election update)
2nd Assembly District. (11/16/2018 election update)
3rd Assembly District. (11/16/2018 election update)
4th Assembly District. (11/16/2018 election update)
5th Assembly District. (11/16/2018 election update)
6th Assembly District. (11/16/2018 election update)
7th Assembly District. (11/17/2018 election update)
8th Assembly District. (11/17/2018 election update)
9th Assembly District. (8/15/2018 primary update)
12th Assembly District. (8/15/2018 primary update)
13th Assembly District. (11/17/2018 election update)
14th Assembly District. (8/15/2018 primary update)
15th Assembly District. (11/17/2018 election update)
16th Assembly District. (8/15/2018 primary update)
18th Assembly District. (8/15/2018 primary update)
21st Assembly District. (11/18/2018 election update)
22nd Assembly District. (11/18/2018 election update)
23rd Assembly District. (11/18/2018 election update)
24th Assembly District. (11/18/2018 election update)
25th Assembly District. (11/18/2018 election update)
26th Assembly District. (11/18/2018 election update)
27th Assembly District. (11/19/2018 election update)
28th Assembly District. (11/19/2018 election update)
29th Assembly District. (11/19/2018 election update)
30th Assembly District. (11/19/2018 election update)
31st Assembly District. (11/20/2018 election update)
32nd Assembly District. (11/20/2018 election update)
33rd Assembly District. (11/20/2018 election update)
34th Assembly District. (11/20/2018 election update)
35th Assembly District. (11/20/2018 election update)
36th Assembly District. (11/20/2018 election update)
37th Assembly District. (6/27/2018)
38th Assembly District. (11/21/2018 election update)
39th Assembly District. (11/21/2018 election update)
40th Assembly District. (11/21/2018 election update)
41st Assembly District. (11/21/2018 election update)
42nd Assembly District. (11/21/2018 election update)
43rd Assembly District. (11/22/2018 election update)
45th Assembly District. (11/22/2018 election update)
49th Assembly District. (11/22/2018 election update)
50th Assembly District. (11/22/2018 election update)
51st Assembly District. (11/23/2018 election update)
52nd Assembly District. (11/23/2018 election update)
53rd Assembly District. (11/23/2018 election update)
55th Assembly District. (11/23/2018 election update)
56th Assembly District. (11/24/2018 election update)
58th Assembly District. (11/24/2018 election update)
59th Assembly District. (8/16/2018 primary update)
60th Assembly District. (11/24/2018 election update
61st Assembly District. (11/25/2018 election update)
62nd Assembly District. (11/25/2018 election update)
63rd Assembly District. (11/25/2018 election update)
64th Assembly District. (11/26/2018 election update)
67th Assembly District. (11/26/2018 election update)
68th Assembly District. (11/26/2018 election update)
69th Assembly District. (11/26/2018 election update)
70th Assembly District. (11/26/2018 election update)
72nd Assembly District. (11/27/2018 election update)
74th Assembly District. (11/27/2018 election update)
75th Assembly District. (11/27/2018 election update)
77th Assembly District. (8/16/2018 primary update)
82nd Assembly District. (11/27/2018 election update)
83rd Assembly District. (11/28/2018 election update)
84th Assembly District. (11/28/2018 election update)
85th Assembly District. (11/28/2018 election update)
86th Assembly District. (11/28/2018 election update)
87th Assembly District. (11/28/2018 election update)
88th Assembly District. (11/29/2018 election update)
89th Assembly District. (11/29/2018 election update)
91st Assembly District. (11/29/2018 election update)
92nd Assembly District. (11/29/2018 election update)
93rd Assembly District. (11/29/2018 election update)
94th Assembly District. (11/30/2018 election update)

96th Assembly District. (11/30/2018 election update)

5th Senate District. (11/30/2018 election update)
7th Senate District. (12/1/2018 election update)
9th Senate District. (12/1/2018 election update)
13th Senate District. (12/1/2018 election update)
17th Senate District. (6/7/2018)
19th Senate District. (8/15/2018 primary update)
21st Senate District. (6/8/2018)
23rd Senate District. (6/8/2018)
25th Senate District. (6/9/2018)
27th Senate District. (6/9/2018)
29th Senate District. (6/10/2018)

31st Senate District. (8/15/2018 primary update)

Wisconsin 2018 elections UPDATE: Who won in the 9th State Senate District?

Devin LaMahieu (R-Oostburg) easily wins a second term in the State Senate.

Source: Wisconsin Elections Commissions (2006), Ballotpedia

The Stackable Art

of the WIGOP Gerrymander

There is no defensible reason for WIGOP to have placed Manitowoc and Two Rivers (here and here) in separate Assembly and Senate districts.

Source: Wisconsin State Legislature

Related reading:
5 myths about gerrymandering. (Washington Post, 3/5/2018)

Partisan gerrymandering is a long-accepted part of U.S. politics.
GOP dominance has more to do with geography than gerrymandering.
Gerrymandering doesn't determine political outcomes.
Courts have historically left redistricting to states.
There are no standards for gerrymandering.

Original 6/6/2018 who's running post starts here.

Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

Related links:
Devin LeMahieu for Senate
Whelton for State Senate

96th Assembly District. (11/30/2018 election update)

5th Senate District. (11/30/2018 election update)
7th Senate District. (12/1/2018 election update)
9th Senate District. (12/1/2018 election update)
13th Senate District. (6/6/2018)
17th Senate District. (6/7/2018)
19th Senate District. (8/15/2018 primary update)
21st Senate District. (6/8/2018)
23rd Senate District. (6/8/2018)
25th Senate District. (6/9/2018)
27th Senate District. (6/9/2018)
29th Senate District. (6/10/2018)

31st Senate District. (8/15/2018 primary update)

Wisconsin 2018 elections UPDATE: Who won in the 7th State Senate District?

Chris Larson (D- Milwaukee) easily wins a 3rd term to the State Senate.

Source: Ballotpedia

The Plunger Art of the WIGOP Gerrymander

Related reading:
Supreme Court decision doesn't change gerrymandering issue. Here's what you need to know. (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 6/22/2018)

What is gerrymandering? Every 10 years, legislative and congressional district boundaries must be redrawn to account for changes in population to ensure the constitutional mandate of one person, one vote.

Gerrymandering is when politicians deliberately draw legislative boundaries to give their party an advantage at the polls — packing the opposing party into a handful of districts or cracking districts and distributing opposing voters across a large number of districts to dilute their votes. It’s a very old political trick, dating to the earliest days of the republic. Both sides do it. (But in Wisconsin, never in such a blatantly cynical (1b) manner as the GOP did after the 2010 census.)

But in a handful of other states, politicians have done something astonishing: They have given up that power.

Original 6/5/2018 who's running post starts here.

Source: Wisconsin Elections Commission

Related link:
Vote Red Arnold

Larson defeated Arnold in 2014 by nearly 20 percentage points.

Source: Ballotpedia

96th Assembly District. (11/30/2018 election update)

5th Senate District. (11/30/2018 election update)
7th Senate District. (12/1/2018 election update)
9th Senate District. (6/6/2018)
13th Senate District. (6/6/2018)
17th Senate District. (6/7/2018)
19th Senate District. (8/15/2018 primary update)
21st Senate District. (6/8/2018)
23rd Senate District. (6/8/2018)
25th Senate District. (6/9/2018)
27th Senate District. (6/9/2018)
29th Senate District. (6/10/2018)

31st Senate District. (8/15/2018 primary update)

GET ME REWRITE: Gun manufacturers, dealers and lobbyists yearn for days when Obama was President

They need a bogeyman to crank up sales like in the good old days of 2009-2016.

Firearms Industry Appears Stuck in the Doldrums. (The New York Times, 11/28/2018)

No mention here of President Obama. They ignore their own earlier reporting, which includes the line graph below.

2013 and 2016, in particular, are not part of a sustainable business plan.

Gun checks down in September, sales hit seven-year low. (guns.com, 104/2018)

Dealers processed nearly 435,000 applications for handguns and just under 371,000 applications for long guns last month. The latter represents the slowest September ever recorded in nearly two decades of FBI data. Likewise, long gun tallies for July and August sank to 10-year lows, returning to levels not seen since before the election of former President Barack Obama.

Friday, November 30, 2018

Paradise, California: "It's a godawful mess."

Quoted in In California, Houses Burned. So Did the Toxic Chemicals They Contained. (The New York Times, 11/29/2018))

In the charred footprint of each home in Paradise lurks an invisible and dangerous legacy of the Camp Fire: toxic chemicals released by the blaze. There may be radioactive isotopes from burned-up antique crockware, cupboards of incinerated household cleaners, and asbestos from old siding. Heavy metals, chemicals and biological contaminants left behind demand a cleanup of extraordinary scale, before any permanent return to Paradise is safe, according to the department.

Source: Wikipedia (1960-Est. 2016)

Deadly California fire could worsen state's homeless crisis. (NBC News, 11/14/2018)

"At this point, I’m taking it day-to-day," said Hill, 29, who has been staying with relatives in nearby Chico. "There are no stores left, no restaurants, nothing. If people did want to live there, there is nowhere to eat, no water or power. It’s not even habitable. It’s like we went back a hundred years. It’s just crazy."

Proceed with caution: Brent Spence Bridge connecting Cincinnati and Kentucky

Without a Trump Infrastructure Plan, an Aging Ohio Bridge Is in Limbo. (The New York Times, 11/28/2018)

Once again, the mouth that roared. The bridge, which could cost $2.5 billion to fix, has bedeviled politicians for decades. And then four days before the 2016 presidential election, Donald J. Trump came to Ohio and promised to replace it.

So far, that has not happened. The bridge is one of the many critical projects across the country that have been in limbo as President Trump’s calls for a big infrastructure plan have not gone anywhere.

GOP spinmeisters worked furiously to downplay blue wave before and after election

The fantasy

Boston Herald

S. E. Cupp in Chicago Sun-Times

The reality

NPR (text box and additional color added above)

'Everyday People' by Sly and the Family Stone debuts on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week ending November 30, 1968

"Everyday People" is Sly & the Famly Stone's second top 10 single and their 1st to reach #1, where it spent 4 weeks in early February and March of 1969.

Billboard Hot 100

Related links:
'Everyday People' applies now as it did in 1968. (St. Cloud Times, 8/4/2016)

The San Francisco group managed to merge funk, psychedelia, rock and soul music to create this rich, stirring sound. Songs like "Dance to the Music," "Hot Fun in the Summertime" and "I Want to Take You Higher" are woven into our musical DNA. With sounds of summer, and key to cultural events like Woodstock, Sly and the Family Stone stands as a significant and powerful act that is too often overlooked or left underappreciated.

Flip or no flip: California 39th congressional district UPDATE

In early January, GOP Rep. Ed Royce, first elected to Congress in November 1992, announced he would not run for re-elected. Suddenly, Paul Ryan found some big holes in his Mighty Mouse cape.

In a result not called until 10 days after the election, Democrat Gil Cisneros defeated Republican State Assembly member Young Kim by less than a percentage point.

Source: Ballotpedia

Monmouth was definitely out to lunch in handicapping this race.

Source: Real Clear Politics

Clearly, not Trump country
Trump received 42.9% of the vote in 2016 compared to 50.8% for Romney in 2012 and 49% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 51.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 47.1% for Obama in 2012 and 47% for Obama in 2008.

Related reading:
California Republican Rep. Ed Royce won't seek reelection, creating bigger opening for Democrats. (Los Angeles Times, 1/8/2018)
Democrat Gil Cisneros defeats Republican Young Kim, flipping last GOP seat in Orange County. (Los Angeles Times, 11/17/2018)

Original 10/12/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Ed Royce (R-California)", starts here.

Since the redistricting process following the 2010 census, Republican Ed Royce was been safely ensconced in California 39th congressional district, winning his last 3 election by an average margin of nearly 25 percentage points.

Source: Ballotpedia

Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push. (USA Today, 10/6/2017)

Republicans are afraid, very afraid. The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.

Source: govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th. (11/30/2018 election update)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 39th. (11/30/2018 election update)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th. (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (11/19/2018 update)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th. (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th. (11/23/2018 update)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (11/25/2018 election update)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (11/28/2018 election update)

David Brat, Virginia 7th. (11/28/2018 election update)

Flip or no flip: California 10th congressional district UPDATE

Once again, Paul Ryan is unable to save the day. Republican Jeff Denham is denied a 4th term, as venture capitalist Josh Harder wins by 2.6 percentage points, allowing Democrats to reclaim a seat they last held in 2012.

Source: Ballotpedia

Two polls gave Harder a 2.8 point advantage. Definitely close enough to 'bingo' in politics.

Source: Real Clear Politics

Trump received 45.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 47.0% for Romney in 2012 and 47.0% for McCain in 2008.

Clinton received 48.5% of the vote in 2016 compared to 50.6% for Obama in 2012 and 50.0% for Obama in 2008.

Related reading:
GOP Rep. Jeff Denham loses heated race for Central Valley 10th District to Democrat Josh Harder. (Los Angeles Times, 11/13/2018)

The seat was one of seven in California heavily targeted by national Democrats after the election of President Trump. Denham, 51, had previously beaten the odds in a district carried by Hillary Clinton and President Obama in the last two presidential elections.

Original 10/9/2017 post, "Paul Ryan-aligned super PAC is out to save the day for Jeff Denham (R-California)", starts here.

Republican Jeff Denham was first elected to Congress in 2012, winning the seat by a margin of 5.4 percentage points, which he more than doubled in his 2014 re-election. In a 2016 rematch, his Democratic opponent Michael Eggman cut the margin to 3.4 percentage points.

Source: Ballotpedia

Exclusive: Ryan-aligned group to unleash volunteer army Saturday in early election push. (USA Today, 10/6/2017)

Republicans are afraid, very afraid. The Congressional Leadership Fund’s “day of action” in 17 House districts comes more than a year before the 2018 midterm elections. The effort, part of the super PAC’s plan to spend $100 million to influence House races, underscores the high stakes of upcoming House battles and marks an early push by Ryan’s allies to ensure that individual House races do not become a referendum on President Trump and his performance.

Source: govtrack

Other U.S. House 2018 election outlooks:
Martha McSally, Arizona 2nd. (10/8/2017)

Jeff Denham, California 10th. (11/30/2018 election update)
David Valadao, California 21st. (10/10/2017)
Steve Knight, California 25th. (11/7/2018 update)
Ed Royce, California 29th. (10/12/2017)
Open seat. California 39th. (9/6/2018)
Mimi Walters, California 45th. (2/12/2018)

Scott Tipton, Colorado 3rd. (11/7/2018 update)
Mike Coffman, Colorado 6th. (11/8/2018 update)

Dennis Ross, Florida 15th. (11/9/2018 update)
Brian Mast, Florida 18th. (11/9/2018 update)
Carlos Curbelo, Florida 26th. (11/9/2018 update)
Florida 27th. (8/31/2018)

Peter Roskam, Illinois 6th. (11/10/2018 update)
Mike Bost, Illinois 12th. (11/10/2018 update)

Rod Blum, Iowa 1st. (11/11/2018 update)
David Young, Iowa 3rd. (11/11/2018 update)

Kevin Yoder, Kansas 3rd. (11/12/2018 update)

Andy Barr, Kentucky 6th. (11/12/2018 update)

Mike Bishop, Michigan 8th. (11/13/2018 update)

Jason Lewis, Minnesota 2nd. (11/15/2018 update)
Erik Paulsen, Minnesota 3rd. (11/15/2018 update)

Don Bacon, Nebraska 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)

Open seat. New Jersey 2nd. (11/16/2018 update)
Tom MacArthur, New Jersey 3rd. (11/19/2018 update)
Leonard Lance, New Jersey 7th. (11/19/2018 update)

Lee Zeldin, New York 1st. (11/21/2018 update)
John Faso, New York 19th. (11/21/2018 update)
Claudia Tenney, New York 22nd. (11/23/2018 update)
John Katko, New York 24th. (11/23/2018 update)

Steve Chabot, Ohio 1st. (11/25/2018 election update)

Ryan Costello, Pennsylvania 6th. (10/23/2017)
Pennsylvania 7th. (8/29/2018)

Will Hurd, Texas 23rd. (11/25/2018 election update)
Pete Sessions, Texas 32nd. (11/25/2018 election update)

Scott Taylor, Virginia 2nd. (11/28/2018 election update)
Disgraced Tom Garrett. Virginia 5th. (11/28/2018 election update)

David Brat, Virginia 7th. (11/28/2018 election update)