With its A- FiveThirtyEight rating, Trafalgar turns midterm polling into a clown show (Arizona edition)

"Kari is maintaining her lead in Arizona!" crows Bobby.

Sources:   New York Times, Slate

Staff is expecting a big tip, Bobby!

Trafalgar projected the Republican Kari Lake winning the election by a 3.6 percentage-point margin in its final Arizona gubernatorial poll of the campaign.  Instead, Democrat Katie Hobbs eked out a razor-thin 0.68 percentage-point victory.  That's a 4.3 point oopsie differential for Bobby.

Bobby has compiled quite the track record this election season:  4 for 13 based on this review.  He's batting .308.  Not bad in baseball.  Sucks in polling.

Screenshots and headline:  Slate, 11/10/2022 (top screenshot PhotoFunia-ed)

Poll rating: FiveThirtyEight (green box added)

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Other Trafalgar clown show visits: 

Governor's race in New York.  (11/15/2022)

Governor's rate in Michigan.  (11/11/2022)

Governor's race in Minnesota.  (11/16/2022)

Governor's race in Pennsylvania.  (11/14/2022)

Governor's race in Wisconsin.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Arizona.  (11/15/21022)

Senate race in Colorado.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Nevada.  (11/15/2022)

Senate race in New Hampshire.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Pennsylvania.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Vermont.  (11/11/2022)

Senate race in Washington.  (11/11/2022)