Wednesday, November 16, 2022

With its A- FiveThirtyEight rating, Trafalgar turns midterm polling into a clown show (Arizona edition)


"Kari is maintaining her lead in Arizona!" crows Bobby.

Sources:   New York TimesSlate

Staff is expecting a big tip, Bobby!


Trafalgar projected the Republican Kari Lake winning the election by a 3.6 percentage-point margin in its final Arizona gubernatorial poll of the campaign.  Instead, Democrat Katie Hobbs eked out a razor-thin 0.68 percentage-point victory.  That's a 4.3 point oopsie differential for Bobby.

Bobby has compiled quite the track record this election season:  4 for 13 based on this review.  He's batting .308.  Not bad in baseball.  Sucks in polling.


Screenshots and headline:  Slate, 11/10/2022 (top screenshot PhotoFunia-ed)
Poll ratingFiveThirtyEight (green box added)


Other Trafalgar clown show visits: 
Senate race in Arizona.  (11/15/21022)
Senate race in Colorado.  (11/14/2022)
Senate race in Nevada.  (11/15/2022)
Senate race in Vermont.  (11/11/2022)

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