Wednesday, November 16, 2022

With its A- FiveThirtyEight rating, Trafalgar turns midterm polling into a clown show (Colorado edition)

 

Denying Democratic candidates a majority of the vote, i.e. exceeding the 50% threshold, was a key building block in the construction of Trafalgar's fantasy polls.

Sources:   New York TimesTwitter

Back again, Bobby? You must really love the food here!


In its final Colorado gubernatorial poll of the campaign,Trafalgar projected Democrat Jared Polis winning the election with 49.6% of the vote, denying him at least 50% of the vote. 

Polis won the election by nearly 20 percentage points,  That results in 12.2 point oopsie differential for Bobby, besting his egregious performances in Washington, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

Bobby has compiled quite the track record this election season:  4 for 15 based on this review.  He's batting .267.  That's what happens in polling when you're on the GOP home team and keep swinging for the fences.



Screenshots and headline:  Slate, 11/10/2022 (top screenshot PhotoFunia-ed)
Poll ratingFiveThirtyEight (green box added)


Other Trafalgar clown show visits: 
Senate race in Arizona.  (11/15/21022)
Senate race in Colorado.  (11/14/2022)
Senate race in Nevada.  (11/15/2022)
Senate race in Vermont.  (11/11/2022)

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