With its A- FiveThirtyEight rating, Trafalgar turns midterm polling into a clown show (Pennsylvania edition)

 

Mastriano closing the gap?  In your dreams, Bobby!        

Sources:   New York Times, Slate

Not even close.  This is not a 'correctly called race', Nate.

Trafalgar had Shapiro up by 4.3 percentage points.  He went on to win the election by 14.4 percentage points, "the biggest landslide for a non-incumbent in the state since 1946," according to the New York Times.

But this outlier polls made the news at the start of the weekend before the election.

Local 21 news, 11/4/2022

Why?  Because Bobby thought he could tilt the race in Mastriano's favor.

Some call it an outlier... he calls it more accurate. On Friday, the Trafalgar group released it's latest polling on the race for Governor in Pennsylvania and it shows a much closer race than other polls.

Screenshots and headline:  Slate, 11/10/2022 (top screenshot PhotoFunia-ed)

Poll rating: FiveThirtyEight (green box added)

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Other Trafalgar clown show visits: 

Governor's race in Michigan.  (11/11/2022)

Senate race in Pennsylvania.  (11/14/2022)

Senate race in Vermont.  (11/11/2022)

Senate race in Washington.  (11/11/2022)