Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Misadventures in polling: Rule #1 is that an outlier poll does not indicate a trend

 
The tabloid New York Post gets snookered.

Going back to June, Democratic incumbent governor Kathy Hochul won all but one poll.  And guess who did that one.  Yup, Trafalgar.

HeadlineNew York Post, 10/23/2022
The independent co/efficient survey of 1,056 likely voters shows Zeldin with 45.6% support and Hochul at 45.3% with the rest undecided. 
The margin of error for the survey is plus or minus 3.31 percentage points. 
Significantly, it’s the first poll showing Zeldin — who has run a campaign focusing on law and order amid a crime surge — running ahead or even with the Democrat governor.

The co/efficient polling service gets a mediocre rating from FiveThirtyEight.  Moreover, Real Clear Politics didn't bother to include co/efficient's mid-October poll on its data list.

Even the New York Times contributed to the horse-race atmosphere.  


Other misadventures:
New Hampshire.  (11/9/2022)
Wisconsin.  (11/9/2022)
Michigan.  (11/9/2022)

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