Adventures in Polling (2022 elections): Way off the mark in Washington State

 

Poll average:  Real Clear Politics

Actual:  New York Times (57% of vote)

Real Clear Politics poll average gave Michigan Democratic incumbent Senator Patty Murray a narrow 3-point advantage over the GOP challenger Tiffany Smiley.

Murray has been declared the winner, having a 14 percentage-point advantage with 57% of the vote reported.  What are the odds it shrinks down to 3?  Slim to none, unless Trafalgar is counting the votes.

Another surge.  Another mirage.

Real Clear Politics (red box added)

Trafalgar (yup, it's eye roll time) released two polls, one in September and the other in October, that showed Whitmer and Dixon in a near dead heat.  

Real Clear Politics (red boxes added)

The New York Times engaged in some pearl-clutching

In an open primary this year, Ms. Murray easily bested Ms. Smiley, winning more than 52 percent of the vote to Ms. Smiley’s nearly 34 percent. She is still seen as favored to prevail, and has overcome tough challenges before in her career. But Republicans have continued to funnel millions of dollars into Washington State, Ms. Smiley has out-raised the incumbent senator and polls have tightened in recent weeks, rattling some Democrats.

And then there's the obligatory 'dead heat' headline, which trumpeted the news right after the second Trafalgar poll was released.  A cynic might think that all of this was coordinated at 11811 NE 1st St, Bellevue, WA 98005.

Other misadventures:

New Hampshire.  (11/9/2022)

Wisconsin.  (11/9/2022)

Michigan.  (11/9/2022)

New York.  (11/9/2022)