Are the polls underestimating Republicans? Certainly not in Texas!

According to Real Clear Polling averages for the final few weeks of the campaign for Texas governor, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott held a 2.3 percentage-point lead over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. 

The election day reality:  Hinojosa kicked Abbot's butt by 7.1 percentage points.

That's a 9.4 percentage-point swing-and-a-miss.

Headline:  Washington Post, 10/8/2026

Poll averages and election results:  Real Clear Polling

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