Cumberland County Pennsylvania voters are likely to give Kamala Harris an assist this November

 

The GOP margin of victory in the county has decreased from 39.3 percentage points in 1984 to 10.5 percentage points in 2020.

 

3rd-party candidates received 17.1% of vote in 1992, 

8% of vote in 1996, 5.9% in 2016;

(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 

9.5% of the vote in 1968)

Source:  Wikipedia (and population below)

Trump received 8,136 more votes than he did in 2016, a 11.7% increase.  But his share of the votes decreased 1.6 percentage points.

Biden received 15,160 more votes than Clinton did in 2016, an increase of 32%. Biden increased Clinton's share of the vote 5.6 percentage points.

AlterNet, 9/9/2024

Based on the fact that Democrats have nearly halved the GOP margin of victory in Cumberland County since 2012, Trump should be shittin' his britches.

"The Philadelphia suburbs have gained attention for becoming increasingly Democratic in recent years and helping President Joe Biden win in 2020," Schneider and Shukla report, "but an Inquirer analysis of election results shows that smaller cities' suburbs are also key to either party's chances of winning the White House in November…. While Trump is still favored to win Cumberland County, which is majority Republican and largely rural and suburban, Vice President Kamala Harris' ability to continue her party's gains in areas like Lower Allen will be a critical factor to watch."

Unlike most Pennsylvania counties, Cumberland continues to gain population.

And its residents, on average, have a higher level of education.

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:

• 38.7% - Cumberland County
• 33.8% - Pennsylvania
• 34.3% - U.S.