Early Door County Results Disappoint in Wisconsin Governor's Race

Wisconsin Gov. Walker Race Too Close To Call. (CBS Minnesota, 11/4/2014)

You should have contacted me. 

The race was too close to call based on unofficial results as of 9 p.m.

Here's a portion of the "bellwether" analysis I offered in a blog post from election day morning --  9:55 a.m., to be exact.

Mary Burke needs to win Door County in order for me to maintain an acceptable overall level of confidence throughout the rest of the evening. I need to see an indication that a majority of voters there believe that Wisconsin is not moving forward.

45 minutes of the closing of the polls, at 8:45 p.m., Door County reported a 57%/43% split of the vote, advantage Walker, with more than 30% of precincts reporting.  (Door was among the first counties to report its 2012 recall results.)  At this point, my level of confidence plummeted, smashing into little pieces in my gut.

The Door County returns never came close to the threshold I had set.  Walker ended up receiving 53.8% of the vote, Burke 45.1%.

  
My second bellwether, Trempealeau County, in the west-central portion of the state, didn't report any results until shortly after 9:00.  But I already knew they wouldn't provide any relief to the sick feeling in my stomach.  In fact, early returns there only added to my distress.

Any insights? my wife texted me from a election watch party at a few minutes before 9.

Based on my bellwether counties, it's all over but the cryin', I replied.

It's a favorite expression of mine, usually uttered ironically.  Not this time.

In the final, yet to be certified, 2014 election results, Scott Walker bested his 2010 tally by 714 votes.  Mary Burke exceeded Tom Barrett's total by just 44 votes.

So much for the idea of frac sand mining as an election day game-changer.