Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Based on these numbers, Donald Trump should focus his campaign energy on Waukesha County

 
Election results:  Wikipedia 
3rd party votes:  20.9% in 1992, 9.9% in 1996. 6.7% in 2016
(Alabama segregationist George Wallace received 8.1% of the vote in 1968)
Headline:  Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 9/30/2024
This was the scene in Waukesha County, where as recently as the 2000s and 2010s Republicans won statewide elections in Wisconsin in part by amassing lopsided majorities in the "crucial" county that could counter Democrats running up the score in liberal Dane and Milwaukee counties. 
Now, not only are Democrats gaining more and more votes in Dane County — the fastest-growing county in the state — they're cutting into the margins in Waukesha County, making it more competitive and upending the political calculus in Wisconsin.

Here's how it has played out recently.

In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney won Waukesha County by a wide margin -- 34.5 percentage points.  He received 162,798 votes.

In 2016, Republican Donald Trump won Waukesha County by 26.7 percentage points.  He received 142,543 votes -- 20,253 fewer than Romney.

In 2020, Republican Donald Trump won Waurkesha County by 20.8 percentage points, a 40% drop in the GOP margin of victory compared to 2012.  He received 159,649 votes, an increase of 17,106 over his 2016 tally.  

In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden received 103,906 votes -- 24,682 more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

The most instructive demographic:  education level

% of population 25 and older with bachelor's degree:
  • 47.2% - Waukesha County
  • 32.0% - Wisconsin
  • 34.3% - U.S.

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