2024 elections: Watch what voters do, not what they tell pollsters

 

Graph:  Real Clear Politics

Headline:  New York Times, 2/2/2024

For the many Americans who are nervous about the polls showing that President Biden may lose to Donald Trump in November, there is one big source of comfort. Since Trump took office in 2017, Republicans have lost many more elections than they’ve won, sometimes even when the polls looked bad for Democrats. 

The list of recent Democratic victories is striking: In the 2018 midterms, the party retook the House. In 2020, Biden beat Trump, and Democrats retook the Senate. In the 2022 midterms, Democrats fared better than many pundits expected. Last year, Democrats did well in Kentucky, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. They have also won many special elections to fill political offices that unexpectedly came open. Voters may express dissatisfaction with Biden in surveys. 

When the stakes have been real, however, a crucial slice of these voters prefers Democrats to Trump-aligned Republicans. [emphasis added]