It's very simple, folks

 

Headline:  Wisconsin Public Radio, 8/16/2023

His favorability rating, on average, is only about 40%. With independents, he's in the 30s in the latest polling. And Trump has had a repelling effect with independent unengaged voters, who lean toward one party or the other and often decide the outcome of elections. 

More than half of independents — 52% — said they think Trump has done something illegal, the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found. That's up 11 points since March, just before the first indictment in New York was released related to Trump's hush-money payments to women he was alleged to have had affairs with.