Thursday, September 29, 2022

Day 217 of Putin's 'BLITZKRIEG' of Ukraine (A Fool Never Learns)


Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  New York Times
In phone calls to friends and relatives at home, Russian soldiers gave damning insider accounts of battlefield failures and civilian executions, excoriating their leaders just weeks into the campaign to take Kyiv.


Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Aljazeera
Russia’s first public mobilisation since World War II – needed to shore up its faltering Ukraine war – has triggered a rush for the border with hundreds of arrests and widespread unease among the population.   
The move has also attracted criticism from the Kremlin’s own supporters, something almost unheard of in Russia since the invasion began.


Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Atlantic Council
The stunning success of Ukraine’s recent counteroffensive has exposed the rotten reality behind Russia’s reputation as a military superpower. More than six months since the onset of Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion, it is now obvious that his army is in fact a deeply flawed institution that bears almost no resemblance to the immaculate fighting force of Red Square parades and Kremlin propaganda. Instead, the Russian military suffers from endemic corruption, low morale, and poor leadership, with individual initiative in short supply and commanders deeply reluctant to accept personal responsibility.


Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline: Washington Post
Instead, what transpired in and around Kyiv in the ensuing 36 days would represent the biggest foreign blunder in the 22-year rule of Russian President Vladimir Putin. His assault on the city instantly reordered the security architecture of Europe against Moscow and isolated his nation to a degree unseen since the Cold War. To the surprise of the world, the offensive against the Ukrainian capital would end in a humiliating retreat, which would expose deep systemic problems in a Russian military he had spent billions to rebuild.

Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline: Washington Post
An agency whose domain includes internal security in Russia as well as espionage in the former Soviet states, the FSB has spent decades spying on Ukraine, attempting to co-opt its institutions, paying off officials and working to impede any perceived drift toward the West. No aspect of the FSB’s intelligence mission outside Russia was more important than burrowing into all levels of Ukrainian society. 
And yet, the agency failed to incapacitate Ukraine’s government, foment any semblance of a pro-Russian groundswell or interrupt President Volodymyr Zelensky’s hold on power. Its analysts either did not fathom how forcefully Ukraine would respond, Ukrainian and Western officials said, or did understand but couldn’t or wouldn’t convey such sober assessments to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The humiliations of Russia’s military have largely overshadowed the failures of the FSB and other intelligence agencies. But in some ways, these have been even more incomprehensible and consequential, officials said, underpinning nearly every Kremlin war decision.
Day 169
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Wisconsin State Journal
As Russia continues to suffer losses in its invasion of Ukraine, now nearing its sixth month, the Kremlin has refused to announce a full-blown mobilization — a move that could be very unpopular for President Vladimir Putin. That has led instead to a covert recruitment effort that includes using prisoners to make up the manpower shortage.
So....has Brittney Griner been 'recruited'?

Day 166
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  military.com
The figure, which has not previously been made public, may not be precise but is "in the ballpark" as Russia remains locked in a war with the western-backed Kyiv government, Colin Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for personnel, said during a public press briefing. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces claimed Sunday on social media that 42,200 Russian troops have been killed. 
The estimated losses show the Russian military may be making steep sacrifices as it executes an invasion ordered by President Vladimir Putin that has included failed logistics and supply systems, as well as the bombing of civilians. The Russian assault continues but has now mostly bogged down in a brutal artillery war in the east.
That's some kinda blitzkrieg, Mr. Military Expert!
 
Day 143
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Newsweek
Russian troops achieved "no significant territorial advances" over the last 72 hours as of Thursday, according to the ministry. They are also at risk of losing any achievements made following the capture of Lysychansk, even though they continue to carry out artillery strikes across a broad front in the Donbas.
Day 122
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Washington Post
“There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability,” said a senior Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue. 
The assessments come despite continued Russian advances against outgunned Ukrainian forces, including the capture on Friday of the city of Severodonetsk, the biggest urban center taken by Russia in the east since launching the latest Donbas offensive nearly three months ago.
Day 120
Top headline:  TIME
Figures published last week by the Donetsk People’s Republic, part of the pro-Putin self-declared autonomous region in eastern Ukraine known as the Donbas, claimed that more than 2,100 of its forces had died since operations began and nearly 9,000 had been wounded. 
The casualty rate equals roughly 55% of its total force, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense, “which highlights the extraordinary attrition rate Russian and pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas.”
 
Day 117
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom (print) headline:  New York Times
When Russia shifted its military campaign to focus on eastern Ukraine this spring, senior officials in the Biden administration said the next four to six weeks of fighting would determine the war’s eventual path. 
That time has passed, and officials say the picture is increasingly clear: Russia is likely to end up with more territory, they said, but neither side will gain full control of the region as a depleted Russian military faces an opponent armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons. 
While Russia has seized territory in the easternmost region of Luhansk, its progress has been plodding. Meanwhile, the arrival of American long-range artillery systems, and Ukrainians trained on how to use them, should help Ukraine in the battles to come, said Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Day 116
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Yahoo News
One of the invaders can be heard saying that he came under heavy fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces at night and complained about the shortage of personnel. 
"We have three people on duty here all day,” one of the speakers, presumably a Russian soldiers, said in the intercept.  
“There's barely time to sleep. If only it were so that some would be here, others — there. As things stand, these three are on guard all night, and four — there. In the morning, as we went out, they started [pounding] us with AGS (automatic grenade systems). At first, they struck the field, then got closer and closer. Some ‘Transits’ were driving around. They did not just hit us, they also [pummeled] someone else there.” 
Another participant in the conversation responded that a tank unit near them had also come under fire.
Day 108
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Milwaukee Independent
Because Russia has a US$62 billion defense budget and holds numerical advantages in weapon systemssuch as tanks, artillery, attack helicopters and planes, many analysts asked not whether Russia would win but rather how quickly it would do so. 
What these observers and less experienced analysts are not taking into account is that wartime performance is influenced by more than how weapon systems function. Success in battle is also a function of strategy, operational employment, doctrine, training, leadership, culture and the will to fight. 
Russia held and continues to hold an overwhelming numerical advantage in manpower and weapon systems, but 
Ukraine holds the advantage in every other factor. Ukraine’s military competence goes a long way to explain why Russia failed to seize Kyiv and Kharkiv and why Russia’s attempts to seize the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces in its latest offensive in the east will likely fail.
Day 101
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Aljazeera
The Ukrainian forces reversed a Russian advance in Severodonetsk and recaptured about 20 percent of the strategic eastern city over the past couple of days, the governor of Luhansk province said. 
Moscow meanwhile, said Ukraine forces were retreating from the city after suffering heavy casualties.
Day 99
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Newsweek:
 During his 20-plus years as leader, Putin has devoted vast amounts of resources into growing Russia's military into one of the largest and one of the most modern forces in the world. In the early days of the invasion, numerous media outlets reported on the vast technology of Russia's weapons, but little of that has been evident in Ukraine.
Day 97
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  Newsweek
"With multiple credible reports of localized mutinies amongst Russia's forces in Ukraine, a lack of experienced and credible platoon and company commanders is likely to result to a further decrease in morale and continued or discipline," the post said in one of his bullet points. 
The post went on to claim why Russia was struggling in the battle with its officers.
Day 96
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline:  UPI
"Waning professionalism among Russia's officers could present Ukrainian forces with opportunities. Russian morale, already low, may drop further if such behavior is widespread and continues." 
The analysis came as the Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in an operational update that its forces had repelled seven Russian attacks in the Donbas region in the past 24 hours.
Day 94
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline: Plainsman Post
Putin’s early attempt to blitz Ukraine’s major cities failed, and the war has morphed into a protracted conflict that may have claimed the lives of as many Russian soldiers as the Soviet Union’s nine-year war in Afghanistan, Britain’s Defense Ministry said this week. Moscow has tried to downplay these losses, but the battlefield setbacks have raised questions. 
Signs of resistance are growing. A Russian military court ruled behind closed doors this week that 115 National Guard service members were rightfully terminated for refusing to participate in the invasion. The decision can be appealed, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.

5/26/2022 update starts here
 Day 91
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline: The Conversation
In explaining the reasons for Russia’s unexpected military weakness in Ukraine, few have expressed it better than The Economist. The magazine noted “the incurable inadequacy of despotic power” and “the cheating, bribery and peculation” that is “characteristic of the entire administration”. 
Peculation means embezzlement. It’s a word rarely used nowadays; these words were in fact published by The Economist in October 1854, when Russia was in the process of losing the Crimean War. 
But they might just easily be about Russia today, under Vladimir Putin, and the mess of its invasion of its far smaller neighbour. Rarely have the pernicious effects of authoritarianism and endemic corruption been so vividly on display.  [emphasis added]
 

5/26/2022 update starts here

Day 90
Top headline:  TIME
Bottom headline: Reuters
Currently, only Russians aged 18-40 and foreigners aged 18-30 can enlist as professional soldiers in the Russian military. 
Russian forces have suffered significant losses fighting in Ukraine. 
The defence ministry said on March 25 that 1,351 Russian service personnel had been killed and 3,825 wounded since Moscow sent its armed forces into Ukraine on Feb. 24. It has not updated its casualty figures since. 
Both Ukrainian and Western intelligence officials have said Russia's losses in Ukraine were significantly higher at the time, and have risen sharply since March. 
Day 86
HeadlineThe Spectator
The Russian military has performed far worse in Ukraine than anyone could ever have predicted. After failing to take Kyiv, Russian troops have now been forced to focus on the Donbas region. Despite this greater concentration of forces, they are still struggling to make any major gains beyond the final capture of Mariupol, which had been under siege since the first days of the invasion without resupply or relief.\ 
For Vladimir Putin this represents a grand humiliation

Day 82
Top headline The Daily Mail
Bottom headline:  The Globe and Mail
One military analyst had a brutally frank message for viewers of Russian state television: The war in Ukraine will get much worse for Russia, which is facing a mass mobilization supported by the United States while Russia is almost totally isolated. 
Since President Vladimir Putin ordered the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, Russia state media – and especially state television – have supported the Kremlin’s position. Few dissenting voices have been given air time. 
That appeared to have changed on Monday night when one well-known military analyst gave a blunt assessment to Russia’s main state television channel of what Putin casts as the “special military operation”.
Day 81
Top headline The Daily Mail
Bottom headline:  New York Times

New York Times excerpt:
By any measure, despite capturing territory in the south and east, the Russian military has suffered a major blow in Ukraine. It has been forced to abandon what it expected would be a blitzkrieg to seize the entire country in a few days. Its forces were driven from around Kyiv, the capital. The flagship of its Black Sea fleet, the Moskva, was sunk; it has never controlled the skies; and by some Western estimates, tens of thousands of Russians have died.

81 days is well past the use-by date for 'great speed'.

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