Tuesday, May 12, 2020

University of Washington coronavirus model misses the mark



For the U.S., this model predicts that:

The rate of daily new COVID-19 cases peaked on April 5-7, a projection that appears to be accurate, according to Tung.  (Peak day of new cases:  38,958 on April 24.)

Worldometer (and below)
Highlight and arrow added above.


The number of “active” COVID-19 cases, which are individuals who have been diagnosed but haven’t recovered or died, will peak on April 20, plus or minus four days, and will then slowly decline as the number of cases entering the medical system becomes less than the number of cases leaving the medical system.  (The peak occurred yesterday, May 11 -- plus 21 days.)


The U.S. outbreak will taper off in the first week of June with projections of 710,000 total cases, but could be up to 990,000, and 28,000 deaths, but could be up to 39,000, if the current U.S. fatality rate of 4% holds.  

As of 5/12/2020

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