Misadventures in polling: Ipsos considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll

Sources:  Real Clear Politics, Ipsos

Our Final Forecast For The New Hampshire Primary (2/11/2020).

Once again, taking it all at face value.  On Monday evening, Reuters/Ipsos found Sanders leading Biden 20 percent to 17 percent, with Bloomberg close behind at 15 percent, Warren at 11 percent and Buttigieg at 8 percent. This marked a reversal from their last survey before Iowa, which had Biden ahead of Sanders, 22 percent to 19 percent. But once we adjusted the new post-Iowa survey for house effects — Ipsos hasn’t had great numbers for Biden this cycle, so our model adjusts him upward a little bit in these polls to compensate — our model treated this latest poll as a tie between him and Sanders.

Guess we can discount anything Ipsos puts out for the time being.

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