UPDATE. Lots of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin voters ask themselves, 'What the hell was I thinking?'

In Pennsylvsnia, an 18 percentage-point approval/disapproval shift from +10 to -8.

In Michigan, a 22 percentage-point shift from +8 to -14.

In Wisconsin, a 18 percentage-point shift from +6 to -12.

Trump’s Monthly Approval Rating Hits Record Low in March.  (Morning Consult, 4/5/2018)

The new figures represent a 4 point net decline from February, when 43 percent approved and 52 percent disapproved of Trump. The changes were driven mainly by a loss of enthusiasm among the president’s independent and Republican supporters: Strong approval for Trump was down 2 points among GOP voters, to 45 percent, and 1 point among independents, to 13 percent.

Let's take a look at 2 other states while we're here.


In Ohio, a 18 percentage-point shift from +14 to -4.

In Iowa, a 19 percentage-point shift from +9 to -10.

11/16/2017 update, "Based on this formula, Trump is toast in Pennsylvania in 2020", starts here.

Plugging in the Michigan numbers:

• Trump:   (2,970,733 X 0.76) + (2,928,441 X 0.03) = 2,345,610
• Clinton:  (2,928,441 X 0.90) + (2,970,733 x 0.08) = 2,873,255

Revised Electoral College votes:

• 256 - Republicans
• 278 - Democrats (270 to win)

11/15/update starts here.

Plugging in the Michigan numbers:

• Trump:   (2,279,543 X 0.76) + (2,236,238 X 0.03) = 1,800,517
• Clinton:  (2,268,839 X 0.90) + (2,279,543 x 0.08) = 2,224,318

Revised Electoral College votes:

• 276 - Republicans
• 258 - Democrats

Original 11/15/2017 post, "Based on this formula, Trump is toast is Wisconsin in 2020", starts here.

2016 source:  CNN

Trump voters: We'd do it again.  (Politico, 11/9/2017)

2016, yes, but not necessarily in 2020.  While most Trump voters would back him in a 2016 do-over, some defect when asked whether they will vote for Trump or a generic, unnamed Democrat in 2020. About three-quarters of Trump voters, 76 percent, back Trump in the 2020 matchup, while 8 percent would support the Democrat. 

Compare that with Clinton voters: Ninety percent would vote for the Democrat, and only 3 percent would vote for Trump. Roughly twice as many Trump voters (16 percent) are undecided about whom they would support in 2020 as Clinton voters (7 percent), suggesting Trump's support is softer than it appears on the surface.

Plugging in the Wisconsin numbers.

• Trump:  (1,405,284 X 0.76) + (1,382,536 X 0.03) = 1,109,568
• Clinton:  (1,382,536 X 0.90) + (1,405,284 x 0.08) = 1,336,705

Revised Electoral College votes:

• 292 - Republicans
• 242 - Democrats