Let's take another look at A Really Goofball Presidential primary poll

Source:  Real Clear Politics

ARG poll results

Parsing the Polls: Trump threatens upset in Wisconsin. (Washington Examiner, 4/5/2016)

Timothy P. Carney provides reasons to trust the poll....

1.  Most recent
2.  News media attacks have rallied Trump supporters

....and reasons not to trust the poll.

1. Smallest sample size of recent polls
2. Outlier, i.e., doesn't conform to results of other polls

Photo credit:  Washington Examiner