Dear Paul Burka, We Miss Molly Ivins, Thank You

I imagine she might have had a few things to say about your piece. Right now, in particular.

Dear Yankee. Eight things you ought to know before you start writing stories about Rick Perry. You’re welcome. (Texas Monthly, August 2011)

Shall we roast of couple of these ideas over the fire?

Your point #3.  Perry is cannier than you think he is. Perry revels in political plays that are initially misunderstood by the press and his critics.

Perhaps endearing and disarming in Texas, but off-putting and disconcerting on the national stage.

I think Nate Silver has something to say about this, too.  (Is Perry Toast?  The New York Times, 11/9/2011)

Almost immediately after what will probably be remembered as the Bill Buckner moment of primary debates, when Texas Gov. Rick Perry literally forgot which governmental agencies he would cut and concluded his answer with a sheepish “Oops,” Mr. Perry’s stock on the betting market Intrade [see screenshot below] dropped in half. Tabbed as having about a 9 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination before the debate, the market revised his odds downward to 4 percent just moments after the gaffe.

Note the precipitous decline from what looks to be late September.

Your point #8. Don’t discount the luck factor. It is uncanny how often good fortune has been in ­Perry’s corner throughout his political career.

Former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson was also blessed with a bounty of good fortune, which he attempted to parlay into a run for the Presidency.  And we all know how that ended up, neighboring Iowans stopping him dead in his tracks..  Some politicians just don't translate well outside of their home state.  Tim Pawlenty and George Pataki join Thompson as members of this club.  Now we can add Rick Perry.

And as for Perry's good fortune, right now he's is about as lucky this Hollywood bomb.