A Few Comments on Crowd Size at Saturday's Capitol Rallies

First of all, I'll be the first admit that quibbling over the number of people who attended yesterday's rallies at the Wisconsin State Capitol is not the most productive exercise.  But I am annoyed, though not surprised, at the tone of many news reports that the presence of a relatively small Pro-Walker (i.e., red) contingent somehow put their effort and message on an equal footing with the sustained and growing pro-worker (i.e. blue) presence on the Capitol Square and beyond.

The above color-coded map of who was clustered where is based on observations I made during the 7 hours I spent in and around the Capitol and along State Street yesterday.

The Pro-Walker rally was scheduled from 12 noon to 3:00, but ended at 1:20.  One of the attendees attributed it to "the speakers' efficiency".  By 5:00 p.m. the crowd, generously estimated to be between 2,000 and 3,000 in number, had dwindled to a cluster of less than 100 people standing near the east entrance to the Capitol.

Now here's the thing about the two pro-labor rallies -- one at 10:30 and the other at 4:00.  A steady stream of people arrived and departed throughout the afternoon.  This was particularly noticeable when my wife and son and I took a mid-afternoon lunch break at Husnu's.  We even had a window seat.  During the hour we were there, we watched a continuous stream of people with pro-worker signs walking from the Square toward Library Mall.  At the same time, an even larger group streamed up State Street toward the Square.  Reinforcements, if you will.  (And the crowd included an impressive number of parents with preschool children.)

Here's an explanation on How to Calculate Crowd Size at Big Events.

OK, let's say, in the case of yesterday's rallies, that at 12 noon someone measures the square feet in the total area occupied by the crowd and divides it by the appropriate figure, depending on assessment of crowd density.  They arrive at a figure of 60,000.  But this is just a 'snapshot' of a daylong, fluid event, not the case with the Walker rally.  A follow-up estimate at, say, 4:00 p.m. might also arrive at a crowd size of 60,000, but it's not entirely the same group of people.

This is why I go with the media outlets that estimated the crowd size closer to 100,000.