Once again, taking it all at face value. On Monday evening, Reuters/Ipsos found Sanders leading Biden 20 percent to 17 percent, with Bloomberg close behind at 15 percent, Warren at 11 percent and Buttigieg at 8 percent. This marked a reversal from their last survey before Iowa, which had Biden ahead of Sanders, 22 percent to 19 percent. But once we adjusted the new post-Iowa survey for house effects — Ipsos hasn’t had great numbers for Biden this cycle, so our model adjusts him upward a little bit in these polls to compensate — our model treated this latest poll as a tie between him and Sanders.Guess we can discount anything Ipsos puts out for the time being.
2020 New Hampshire primary election: Many polls didn't see an Amy Klobuchar surge coming. (2/12/2020)
Misadventures in polling: Monmouth University considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll. (2/12/2020)
Misadventures in polling: Morning Consult considerably off the mark with its final New Hampshire primary election poll. (2/12/2020)